Electricity demand on the Quebec market is growing even faster than Hydro-Quebec forecast last year. To satisfy the Quebec market, other supplies, in addition to all those already planned or announced, are necessary within ten years.
Posted at 11:53 a.m.
Updated at 12:31 p.m.
The new supply plan that has just been submitted by Hydro-Québec to the Régie de l’énergie shows an even tighter energy balance than that established on the same date last year. It also confirms that the surpluses will be exhausted in 2026.
Growth in electricity demand is accelerating. Hydro-Quebec predicted last year an increase in the needs of the Quebec market of 20 terawatt hours for the next ten years. The increase in demand is now estimated at 25 terawatt hours by 2032, of which 21 terawatt hours are linked to the energy transition, which will be at the center of the discussions of the new committee chaired by Prime Minister Legault to arbitrate between the requests. industries and available energy.
The additional growth in needs compared to last year is therefore mainly due to the conversion of heating and industrial processes, and what Hydro-Québec calls emerging sectors, such as data centers, green hydrogen and electric vehicles.
No specific investment project is identified in the supply plan, an exercise that Hydro-Québec does every three years.
Quebec’s additional electricity needs are estimated at 100 terawatt hours by 2050. But within ten years, 25 terawatt hours are needed. Current calls for tenders, those planned and all the other measures announced, such as energy efficiency, will not be enough. It will be necessary to find between 7 and 8 additional terawatt hours, or 1,400 megawatts.
Other calls for tenders for new production of all kinds, which does not exclude new hydroelectric works, are on the program.
End of cryptocurrencies
In order to have more flexibility, Hydro-Québec will stop supplying the energy-intensive cryptocurrency sector. It officially asks the Régie de l’énergie to suspend the granting of a block of 270 megawatts already planned for these activities, in order to be able to reallocate it elsewhere. The minister responsible for the state corporation, Pierre Fitzgibbon, has announced that a decree will ask the Régie to release Hydro-Québec from this obligation.
The additional needs of 1,400 megawatts are added to the increase in production already planned, namely the two current calls for tenders for wind energy (480 megawatts) and renewable energy (300 megawatts). They are also in addition to the 2,300 megawatts (1,000 megawatts of wind power and 1,300 megawatts of renewable energy) announced this spring in Gaspésie by Premier François Legault.
In total, these tenders will provide 16 of the 25 terawatt hours of energy needed to meet the needs of the Quebec market, now notes Hydro-Quebec.
The state corporation, for its part, will take steps to reduce additional energy needs by adding 2,000 megawatts of power to its existing power stations. It also confirms that it is working to update Quebec’s hydroelectric potential.
During the election campaign, Premier Legault announced his intention to build new dams and new hydroelectric plants to ensure Quebec’s energy security.
Hilo remains on the menu
The energy efficiency target for reducing demand has been increased from 8 to 8.9 terawatt hours. Hydro-Québec relies on its financial assistance programs for residential customers to purchase efficient heat pumps and for business customers to optimize energy consumption.
Despite failures that resulted in the departure of its CEO Sébastien Fournier, Hilo is still part of Hydro-Quebec’s plan to reduce consumption during winter peak periods. With the other demand management programs such as dynamic pricing, the company expects to be able to wipe out the equivalent of the production of the LG-4 plant, or 3,000 megawatts, within ten years.
The contribution of solar energy to Québec’s energy needs is increasing, but it remains marginal, at 0.7 terawatt hours. Hydro-Quebec estimates that only 700 of its customers have solar panels.
No economic slowdown or recession scenarios are incorporated into the 2023-2032 supply plan. However, the plan is subject to an annual update during the three years it is in force.