After a campaign disrupted by the outbreak of war in Ukraine, sovereigntist Viktor Orban saw his most difficult political battle during the legislative elections on Sunday in Hungary.
Facing him, an unprecedented alliance of six parties, determined to overthrow the “authoritarian” 58-year-old leader.
Accused by Brussels of multiple attacks on the rule of law, he muzzled over 12 years of “illiberal” justice and media reforms, while advocating an ultra-conservative vision of society.
Black jacket and determined face, Mr. Orban voted with his wife Aniko Levai early in the morning, in a school in the suburbs of Budapest, promising a “great victory”.
Opposition leader Peter Marki-Zay, 49, slipped his ballot into the ballot box at the same time as his seven children, after attending mass in his town of Hodmezovasarhely (southeast).
If he remains hopeful of winning, he denounced “unfair and impossible conditions” aimed at allowing his rival to “remain in power forever”. And to quote public media at the boot of the government – he himself was entitled to only five minutes of airtime on public television, in all and for all.
Mr. Orban swept aside these accusations, while the ballot was held for the first time under the supervision of more than 200 international observers. Each camp also deployed thousands of volunteers.
At midday (11:00 GMT), the turnout was 40%, slightly down from the record mobilization of the 2018 election.
“They ruined our country”
Among supporters of Fidesz, the ruling party, Zsuzsa Alanyi, a 44-year-old decorator and mother of four, welcomed “the tax cuts and aid” allocated to families.
For Agnes Kunyik, 56, on the contrary, “they ruined our country, they destroyed it”. “We want to stay in Europe, we want a democratic state with rational leaders,” she told AFP.
If the victory of the opposition seems acquired in Budapest, the battle promises to be more complicated in the rural areas. The key lies in 20 to 30 undecided constituencies, out of the 199 seats in Parliament.
“MZP” has crisscrossed these territories in recent weeks, listening to the inhabitants, in the hope of defeating the “propaganda” of the government.
Conversely, “Viktor Orban was almost invisible on the ground”, underlines Andras Pulai, of the Publicus polling institute close to the opposition.
The latest survey gave the two camps neck and neck, when others give an advantage to Fidesz.
But because of the electoral system, the opposition would have to “gain 3 to 4 points” to win a majority in Parliament, recalls the expert. “It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the election. Everything can happen “.
“The war changed everything”
Especially since the conflict in neighboring Ukraine has completely disrupted the situation.
“War broke out, and war changed everything,” Orban summed up on Friday during his only campaign rally.
“Peace against war”, the equation is simple in his eyes.
On the one hand, a government that refuses to deliver arms to Ukraine and to vote for sanctions that would deprive Hungarians of precious Russian oil and gas. On the other, an opposition that would be belligerent.
If this speech has hit the mark in the countryside, the closeness cultivated since 2010 with “the aggressor”, Vladimir Putin, could turn against him, underlines Mr. Pulai.
By voting for the opposition, Maria Rapcsak, 75, wants precisely “to put an end to the corrupt pro-Putin policy of Orban”, presented on the placards of the meetings as “a mini-Putin”.
In addition to the election of their deputies, the Hungarians are called upon to answer four questions in connection with the recent law prohibiting to evoke with less than 18 years “the change of sex and homosexuality”.
An “unhealthy” referendum for NGOs who asked voters to “invalidate” their ballots by ticking two boxes instead of one. This is what Regina, 25, did to protest against an initiative making LGBT + “an enemy”.
Polling stations, open at 06:00 (04:00 GMT), close at 19:00. But the results could not fall until midnight, according to the government.