2024 - Hungary, Germany, Italy... What are the hot spots in the election to watch?

Between the rise of the far right and the emergence of new parties, the expected result on Sunday should be very different from the 2019 edition in many countries.

Twenty-seven countries, and as many campaigns. With more than 370 million citizens called to the polls, the European elections on June 9 represent one of the biggest elections in the world. So much so that it can be difficult to navigate this race for the European Parliament, which will lead to the appointment of 720 MEPs. In France, this vote is sometimes presented as a test for the government in office, a sort of mid-term election. The same is true for some of our neighbors. Overview of countries where notable changes could take place on Sunday.

In Hungary, a young party faces the eurosceptic Viktor Orban

Three years after its creation, the Tisza party has seen its popularity skyrocket in recent months. With around 25% of voting intentions, it appears in second place in the polls behind Fidesz, the nationalist party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, given first at 48%. After bringing his country’s courts and media into line, the head of government campaigned by propagating false informationaccusing the EU in particular of preparing compulsory military service and then sending Europeans fight in Ukraine against Russia, recalls RFI.

Facing the all-powerful Prime Minister, it was a former Fidesz executive, Peter Magyar, who established himself as the main alternative in view of the European elections. The 43-year-old lawyer joined Tisza in March 2024, vowing to fight “the oligarchy that is ruining the country”, as reported by France Culture. He also wants to put Hungary back on the path to Europe, after years of disagreement between Budapest and Brussels concerning respect for the independence of justice.

In the European elections, Hungary must elect 21 MEPs.

In Germany, the far right could score its best score despite scandals

Across the Rhine, the debates focused in particular on the military aid offered to Ukraine. Far from appreciating these arms deliveries, part of the left-wing electorate is calling for a brake and could sanction Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party, the SPD. According to the latest polls, the Social Democrats are unlikely to do better than in the 2019 election, where they obtained 15.82% of the vote. At the same level, we find the German Greens (credited at 13%), down like their European comrades. Far ahead, the conservative opposition (CDU-CSU) peaks at around 33% of voting intentions.

In this context, the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party hopes to achieve its best performance in the European elections. In 2019, his list attracted nearly 11% of voters. Five years later, the AfD is in the lead among 14-29 year olds and could collect 16% of the votes. Unless the scandals accumulated by the party work against it.

Between the revelations about a “secret” meeting concerning a massive expulsion plan for people of foreign origin And revisionist remarks from its head of the list, Maximilian Krah, on Nazi Germany, the AfD is indeed in turmoil. Whatever the result, its European allies (including the National Rally in France) announced that they would no longer sit with its elected representatives in Strasbourg.

For the European elections, Germany must elect 96 MEPs.

In Poland, an expected neck and neck despite a recent political shift

Even after being driven from power in October 2023 by the pro-European Donald Tusk and his centrist Civic Coalition, the ultraconservative PiS party remains well placed in the polls. These rival parties, which have succeeded each other at the head of the country for twenty years, are both credited with around 30% of voting intentions. Abortion, freedom of the press, role of Europe… The Civic Coalition and the PiS are opposed on many subjects, a sign of the growing polarization of the country.

At the same time, the far-right party Konfederacja, created in 2019, seems well on its way to sending its very first elected officials to Strasbourg. According to polls, he would capture around 10% of the votes, which would allow him to win at least five seats in the European Parliament.

For the European elections, Poland must elect 53 MEPs.

In Bulgaria, a very tense election after a telephone tapping scandal

On the weekend of June 9, Bulgarians are called to carry out a “2 in 1 vote”, by submitting a ballot for the European elections as well as for their legislative elections. – all in a delicate context. At the end of May, wiretaps from executives of the liberal PP party were leaked to the press. We hear Assen Vassilev, co-leader of the PP and former Minister of Finance, say that the party has “a lot of unofficial money in cash”. Enough to question the state of democracy in the country.

Two months after the fall of Nikolai Denkov’s pro-European government, and a few days before the double elections, Bulgaria remains plunged into a serious political crisis. The PP should only come second on Sunday, with around 17% of the votes, far behind the Bulgarian Democratic Party (EPP) in the lead with 25 or 27% of the votes, according to the surveys. In ambush, the far-right list of Kostadin Kostadinov, hostile to Europe and NATO, but close to Russia, could achieve his best score by collecting 15% of the votes.

In the European elections, Bulgaria must elect 17 MEPs.

In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s far right in search of new success

In 2019, the populists of the Northern League came first in the European elections in Italy with around 34% of the vote. Five years later, Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Fratelli d’Italia party won power and is leading the way in the polls, with around 27% voting intentions. It would be closely followed by the Democratic Party (around 20%) and the populists of the 5 Star Movement (16%). The League has plummeted, and should hardly reach 10% of the votes.

Since she has been “Prime Minister” (she refuses the feminization of the title), Giorgia Meloni locked the power and cut back on social policy, notably removing citizenship income (the equivalent of the RSA). If the predictions were to prove true, she would sign a double blow by establishing herself as a figure of ultraconservative nationalism not only in Italy, but also within the EU.

For the European elections, Italy must elect 76 MEPs.

In Spain, the strong return of historic parties in the face of flagging extremes

The left-right divide is more relevant than ever among our Iberian neighbors. The two traditional parties, the People’s Party (PP) and the Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) both exceed 30% of voting intentions in the polls. If this were confirmed on Sunday, the right would sign its biggest progression, with a jump of around 10 points compared to the last Europeans.

On the far right, the Vox party has been evolving slowly since 2019 and has gone through some rough patches over the past two years. The ultranationalist formation, which demands “a Europe of patriots”as reported France 24can still hope to increase from approximately 6 to 10% of the votes, and thus double its number of deputies (from three to six elected officials).

The outlook is much bleaker for the radical left party Podemos, which won 10.07% of the vote in 2019 and six seats in the European Parliament. He is now only credited with 3% in the polls, surpassed by the young left-wing Sumar movement (which is around 8%), founded less than two years ago.

In the European elections, Spain must elect 61 MEPs.

In Belgium, risks of interference with regional and federal elections

The weekend of June 8 and 9 promises to be highly electoral among our Belgian neighbors. In addition to its MEPs, Belgium must appoint its new representatives at regional and federal level. It is difficult for candidates for the European Parliament to make themselves heard when the debates focus on the split of the country in two, as reported by Euronews. This is in fact what the Flemish nationalists of Vlaams Belang are proposing, first in the polls in Flanders and for the Federal Parliament, with around 26% of voting intentions.

However, this should not prevent Belgians from voting in the European elections, and en masse. Because in the country, voting is compulsory, and not going to the polls is punishable by a fine. During the last European election, in 2019, abstention reached 11.5% (compared to 49.9% in France).

For the European elections, Belgium must elect 22 MEPs.

In Ireland, independent candidates favored in the polls ahead of those of the ruling party

It’s nice to have your own ticket to the Emerald Isle. According to a recent survey by Newspaper and the Ireland Thinks institute, the Irish could vote in majority for independent candidates on Sunday. A trend underlined by another poll relayed by RTE, Irish public television, which gives the independents first with 23% of voting intentions.

A notch below, the centrist Fine Gael party (currently in power) should arrive at the same level as the republicans of Fianna Fail and the nationalists of Sinn Fein, all credited with around 17%. If these projections were confirmed, it would constitute a serious setback for Fine Gael, which had received 29.6% of the votes in 2019. But also for the Sinn Fein, just two years after its historic victory in the legislative elections.

For the European elections, Ireland must elect 14 MEPs.