After a lean winter and a market that continues to slow, a record number of real estate brokers across Quebec could soon make the difficult decision to leave the profession.
“Even if we don’t see it yet, it’s something we talk about a lot and that the industry is certainly anticipating,” observes Dominic St-Pierre, vice-president and general manager for Quebec of Royal LePage Real Estate Services.
By the end of April, in less than two months, the province’s 17,000 brokers will have to renew their license to practice with the Organisme d’autoréglementation de courtage immobilier du Québec (OACIQ).
An annual ritual
Valid for one year, the fees for this license exceed $2,300 for a newcomer and $1,900 for an established broker who wishes to continue his practice.
As the invoice is important, this deadline usually provokes a reflection – a sort of questioning – on the year to come, among most brokers in Quebec.
“It’s like in the song: ‘Do I stop or do I continue? Stop, or again?” The choice is certainly not easy”, explains a still undecided broker who wishes to remain anonymous while he settles on his professional future.
Thus, on this date, each year, hundreds of brokers choose to withdraw. In the spring of 2020, for example, when the health measures linked to Covid did not bode well, no less than 600 permit holders decided to play it safe by storing their signs.
The following year, after the market had regained strength, they were half as many withdrawing, while the aspiring brokers flocked. For example, confirms Réjean Lavoie, from the Cégep de Chicoutimi, admissions to the residential real estate brokerage program had exploded by 16% that same year.
25% drop in sales expected
Things could look quite different by the end of April, as the resale market continues to experience its worst tumble in twenty years, acknowledges the broker and chairman of the board of directors of the Professional Association of Brokers. real estate of Quebec (APCIQ), Marc Lacasse.
Last Thursday, Desjardins economists also estimated that sales of existing properties will continue to slide by 25% in 2023, a decline similar to that of last year. In doing so, prices will also continue to dive, until there is a 17% gap widening from the April 2022 peak by January.
A thousand disclaimers
The unfavorable context may push many professionals to reassess their options, believes Mr. Lacasse, who notes in passing a decline of 10% in registrations at the College of Real Estate of Quebec.
And this movement of withdrawal is likely to be all the more remarkable as the profession has welcomed a large number of newcomers in recent years. Of the 14,611 brokers it had at the end of 2018, the industry now has a record 16,755, a jump of 15%.
“Those who came for the wrong reasons, attracted by the perception of easily earned income, do not always have the mental or financial preparation to go through a more sluggish period like today,” explains Mr. Lacasse.
That said, of the number of current brokers, how many will throw in the towel within two months? Difficult to estimate.
Dominic St-Pierre expects their number to exceed a thousand professionals, almost three times the withdrawals of last year. But nothing is certain.
The number of brokers has been steadily increasing for several years*
- 2017: 14,336
- 2018: 14,611
- 2019: 14,662
- 2020: 14,772
- 2021: 15,798
- 2022: 16,685
- 2023: 16,755
* As of December 31 of each year. For the year 2023, the figure corresponds to data as of March 1, 2023.
Source: Quebec Real Estate Brokerage Self-Regulatory Organization (OACIQ)
Another difficult year for real estate in 2023
Decrease in the number of transactions – resale market
- 2022: -25%
- 2023: -25%
Lower average price (from April 2022 high)
- 2022: -8.1%
- 2023: -8.9%
- Total: -17% (compared to April 2022)
Decline in new construction starts
- 2022: -15.8%
- 2023: -20%
Decline in new construction starts – rental market
- 2022: -10%
- 2023: -20%
Source: Desjardins Group, Economic Studies