Xavier Bertrand thought he was “the candidate best placed to beat Emmanuel Macron” in the second round of the presidential election, April 24, 2022. His dream of becoming the new tenant of the Elysee Palace came to an end on Thursday, December 2 at 2:30 p.m., when the results of the first round of the Republican Congress were announced . Arrived in fourth position (22.36%) behind Michel Barnier (23.93%), Valérie Pécresse (25%) and Eric Ciotti (25.59%), the former Minister of Health of Nicolas Sarkozy has lost a lot. So big as the one who would prepare “for more than ten years at this meeting with the French” has gone in a few weeks from the status of third or fourth man in the presidential ballot to that of a candidate unable to convince enough militants of his own party. How to explain this crash that nobody had seen coming?
The error of the solitary candidacy
The strategy assumed by Xavier Bertrand to lead a solitary candidacy outside his political family, and therefore to step over the principle of a primary, did not work. The president of the Hauts-de-France region, who had left for the campaign very early, in March, had made the bet to establish himself as the natural candidate on the right. “The primary is not my business because I want direct contact with the French”, he still hammered at the end of the summer on Europe 1. But he never managed to kill the match, to gather behind him the main LR executives like Laurent Wauquiez or Valérie Pécresse and, above all, to convince the authorities of the party to support his candidacy.
By finally organizing an internal congress, the leadership of the Republicans put a stop to the Bertrand dynamic. She has indeed forced the former minister, credited with 18% of voting intentions five months ago, to a closed primary to prevent the right from ending up with two candidates for the presidential election. “Valérie Pécresse immediately said that he had to go through a primary. Xavier Bertrand’s mistake is not to have said it and to have believed until the end that he could bring together, alone , behind him”, analysis Bruno Cautrès, political scientist at the Center for Political Research of Sciences Po (Cevipof).
The trap of the congress and the return to the party
But what the LR activists digested even less is the forced return of Xavier Bertrand to the fold. While he had “definitively” left, in December 2017, a political family in which “he didn’t recognize himself anymore”, the candidate finally decided to take back his party card a few weeks ago to participate in the congress. Which does not seem to have seduced.
If we base ourselves on the results of the first round, the LR activist seems indeed resentful, preferring above all to reward the loyalty of his representatives. “It’s true that there are people who have never forgiven Xavier for leaving the party”, recognizes Cyril Pellevat, LR senator of Haute-Savoie and support of Xavier Bertrand. “His false departure from the party also prevented him from having strong support within the political bureau of the LR. Parliamentarians supported him, but on the side of the party leadership, he was totally isolated”, recalls a relative of Eric Ciotti, the big winner of this first round.
A vague political position
His political position displayed at the start of the campaign also ended up failing the president of Hauts-de-France. By wanting to oppose the hard line of the party, represented by Laurent Wauquiez during his election at the head of LR four years ago, the former 56-year-old insurer had strategically decided to embody a candidacy close to the right social and moderate. But gradually, it is the conservative themes like “the restoration of authority” or “work value” which he had to hammer in spite of himself.
“Xavier Bertrand wanted rather to play a score close to social Gaullism, but the members are not the sympathizers. They are looking above all for a candidate capable of embodying a right-wing position on subjects such as the economy or the evolutions of society, but also someone who has the stature of a man or a stateswoman “, explains researcher Bruno Cautrès.
A “radicalization” forced by his ideas that LR activists have, again, not really understood. “Whenever we organize primaries, it’s the extremes and the less politically correct like Eric Ciotti who win. That’s why we were against primaries with Xavier”, regrets Cyril Pellevat.
The good campaign of Valérie Pécresse
Another reason for candidate Bertrand’s descent into hell in this pre-presidential adventure: “The gradual rise of Valérie Pécresse, supported by the entire Sarkozyst camp”, according to several supporters of the president of Hauts-de-France contacted by franceinfo.
According to some of them, Valérie Pécresse would indeed have surrounded herself better and above all would have better structured her teams. The goal? To garner a maximum of new memberships in its favor, in particular in Ile-de-France, its stronghold. “The fact that the bulk of the 70,000 new memberships at LR took place in the Paris region, and therefore at Valérie Pécresse, may also explain its lead over Xavier”, confirms Senator Cyril Pellevat, who has “not hesitated for a moment” to join the latter for the second round against Eric Ciotti.
Bruno Cautrès shares this observation, emphasizing “a good campaign at the end” led by the former Minister of Higher Education. For the political scientist, Valérie Pécresse would also have made better use of her status as president of the most powerful region in France. “She was able to put forward her functions of elected official by insisting in particular on the cuts which she made in the finances of the regional council. And then, it is true that, overall, even if it was very good during meetings with activists, Xavier Bertrand did not really succeed in winning the four debates “, assures the researcher.
With this heavy defeat in the first round of a primary which he did not want, Xavier Bertrand undoubtedly puts a definitive stop to his presidential ambitions. “Yes, this is the end of my national ambitions, but I will always fight for my ideas and my region”, he declared by announcing in the wake of his rallying for the second round to Valérie Pécresse.