While the eyes of the international community are turned towards the Middle East and no longer towards Ukraine, the Russian president has increased his trips abroad to consolidate his ties with his partners. He seems to be taking advantage of this situation to break out of his isolation.
Vladimir Putin has not said his last word. The Russian president gives his annual press conference on Thursday, December 14. Scheduled to last several hours, this intervention will combine a speech by the leader, who “will take stock of the year”, and an exchange of questions and answers with the public, said the Kremlin. With the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the absorption of Western sanctions by the Russian economy and international attention focused on the war in Gaza, Vladimir Putin appears strengthened at the end of the year.
Could he have hoped for such a scenario less than six months ago? In mid-2023, he was experiencing one of the worst moments of his presidency, destabilized by the rebellion of the Wagner group paramilitaries. Isolated by the West, targeted by an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, the Russian leader appeared more weakened than ever. These problems now seem to be a thing of the past. Taking advantage of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, Vladimir Putin managed to return to the forefront of the international scene.
Progress claimed on the front
The Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7 gave Vladimir Putin an unexpected opportunity to make progress on the Ukrainian front. While the world’s attention was focused on the Middle East, Moscow made several advances, without these being the subject of major international reactions. Russia has relentlessly attacked Avdiïvka, an industrial town on the outskirts of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine. Further north, it claimed the conquest of a small village near Bakhmout.
kyiv is not spared. At the end of November, the Ukrainian capital suffered its largest drone attack since the start of the conflict. The Ukrainian Air Force claimed to have shot down 71 aircraft. A large-scale raid took place again on the night of Tuesday December 12 to Wednesday December 13. Russian missiles injured more than 50 people, the heaviest human toll in months.
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These attacks come at a time when aid provided to Ukraine no longer enjoys as much consensus in Western countries. The American Congress has committed more than 110 billion dollars (around 102 billion euros) to support kyiv, but Republicans and Democrats have so far failed to agree on an extension.
In Europe, Brussels has promised to release 50 billion euros for Ukraine, but Hungary is blocking any payment. The envelope will be on the negotiating table at the European summit which is being held in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. Any delay in aid to Ukraine is a “dream come true” for Vladimir Putin, warned the Ukrainian president, visiting Washington on Monday. Volodymyr Zelensky, who continued his diplomatic tour in Norway on Wednesday, once again called on his allies to maintain their valuable aid.
At this stage, “the war in the Middle East serves the interests of the Kremlin”, explains to franceinfo James Nixey, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the British think tank Chatham House. A decrease in support, particularly American, for Ukraine “would surely lead to defeat [de Kiev] in a few months, even a few weeks”estimates the analyst.
After almost two years of war, the F-16 planes promised to Ukraine have still not been delivered and supplies of artillery shells are dwindling. For its part, Moscow intends to increase the budget of its army by 70% for 2024. On December 1, Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering a 15% increase in the number of soldiers in the Russian army, in order to carry its strength to 2.2 million fighters.
A shift in its strategy in the Middle East
The war in Gaza is also a way for Vladimir Putin to increase his influence in the Middle East by presenting himself as a peacemaker. “We have very stable relations with Israel, we have friendly relations with Palestine“, welcomed the Russian president in October, quoted by the Reuters agency. Since the fall of the USSR, “Russian diplomacy speaks as well with the Saudis, the Iranians, the Israelis, or Qatar, as with Hamas or Hezbollah”, lists with franceinfo David Teurtrie, specialist in Russian geopolitics.
Moscow’s strategy, which dates back to the times of the tsars“is that we should not side with one against another, but let them oppose each other”specifies Mark Katz, American specialist in Russian foreign policy, in an article in Foreign Policy.
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A member of the Quartet for the Middle East, Moscow is the only state to dialogue with all parties, and promotes, like the United States or Europe, a two-state solution. But since October 7, Russia has changed its position. At the UN Security Council, Moscow voted in favor of a ceasefire. “When you look at the children in pain and covered in blood, your fists clench and tears come to your eyes”, Vladimir Putin said about the fate of the Palestinians, reports Reuters. He also compared the blockade of Gaza by Israel to the siege of Leningrad by Nazi Germany during the Second World War, recalls the magazine Time. Above all, Russian diplomats received a Hamas delegation, angering Israel.
“Russia does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization. It has been in dialogue with the group, as with other Palestinian factions, for many years.”
David Teurtrie, Russia specialistat franceinfo
“The context of this meeting may however be surprising given the scale of the attacks committed”, underlines David Teurtrie. Because until now, Russia and Israel had excellent relations. Benjamin Netanyahu used to call Vladimir Putin his “Dear friend” and has visited Russia more than ten times since 2015, recalls the magazine Time. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel did not impose financial sanctions on Moscow and refused to send weapons to kyiv.
“This is a difficult phase in the Russian-Israeli relationship, but the relationship between the two countries is resilient enough not to reach the breaking point”observes with franceinfo Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow. Russians “became neighbors of Israel” via their involvement in the war in Syria, and neither party wants the relationship to deteriorate, “nor that the conflict in Gaza becomes regionalized”adds Igor Delanoë.
A way to promote a “new world”
By adopting a more openly pro-Palestinian position, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is seeking to attract the favor of countries whose populations are particularly sensitive to this cause. The Kremlin has continued to criticize the “double standard” Westerners in this conflict. Moscow believes that “Westerners accept that Israel bombs the Gaza Strip and that civilians are killed without any sanctions being taken, while Russia had been condemned from the first days of the conflict in Ukraine”supports Igor Delanoë.
“Vladimir Putin wants to highlight the selective indignation of the West, between its reaction to the conflict in Ukraine and that in Gaza.”
Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatoryat franceinfo
These statements are part of the broader battle waged by Russia against the West, which is allegedly at work in what Vladimir Putin calls “the awful neocolonial system of international relations”. The Russian leader wants to set up a “new world” which would end American domination to promote a multipolar system. This rhetoric, reminiscent of the speech made by Soviet leaders during the Cold War, is also used by Vladimir Putin in Africa and South America.
Consolidated economic relations
Since October 7, Moscow has also strengthened its relations with its traditional partners. On October 17, ignoring the international arrest warrant issued against him, Vladimir Putin traveled to China to meet President Xi Jinping. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, with trade estimated at $190 billion (around 176 billion euros) in 2022.
This was his first trip to a major world power since the start of the war in Ukraine at the end of February 2022. During the meeting with his “Dear friend” Xi Jinping, the Russian president, defended the new Silk Roads, a gigantic land and maritime infrastructure project carried by Beijing in around a hundred countries to connect Asia and Europe.
Subsequently, the Russian president visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. One of the challenges of these visits was to address the reduction in oil production within the framework of OPEC+, an alliance of oil exporting countries of which Moscow is a member. The leaders also discussed their joint projects around energy. “The Saudis want to equip themselves with a nuclear fleet, and the Russians want to contribute via their Rosatom company”the federal atomic energy agency, illustrates Igor Delanoë.
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On December 7, Vladimir Putin received the Iranian President at the Kremlin Ebrahim Raïssi. In addition to the military support provided by Tehran to Russia in the war in Ukraine, both countries intend to develop an agreement on the creation of a free trade zone between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union, led by Moscow.
“If we compare Vladimir Putin’s situation this summer to that of today, the Russian president appears more confident than ever,” analyzes James Nixey. “While the West is divided over the war in Gaza, he is running in a presidential election that he is sure to win, and could stay in power until 2030…” But will this period last? The war in Ukraine is not over, and kyiv is far from capitulation. As for Russian diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza, they are currently encountering a veto by the United States at the UN and the desire of the Jewish state to continue its offensive.