how to explain the historical results of the National Rally in the second round?

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This is the big surprise of this election. Credited with 20 to 50 seats in the polls before the vote, the National Rally finally won 89 seats in the National Assembly, Sunday June 19, after the second round of the legislative elections, according to the final results of the Ministry of l ‘Interior. In Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais), its leader, Marine Le Pen, was pleased to soon be able to form the parliamentary group “by far the most numerous in the history of (his) political family”. The only group ever formed by the Frontists had been that of 1986, formed following a proportional election (35 deputies).

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In addition to obtaining more resources and speaking time, the RN could in particular inherit the finance committee, whose presidency traditionally falls to the largest opposition group. The far-right party is given in front of the group of La France insoumise (72 seats) and that of the Republicans (64). Franceinfo advances four tracks to explain this breakthrough.

The continuation of demonization

Has the glass ceiling shattered? Afterhe debacle of the second round in 2017, marked by its failed and lost inter-round debate with 34% of the votes against 66% for Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen gained nearly 7.5 points in the second round of presidential elections last April, winning 41.45% of the vote. Enough to give it greater legitimacy in the eyes of voters, according to Erwan Lecoeur, sociologist and specialist on the far right.

“Marine Le Pen’s presidential score, her 40%, gave her presidential stature, she is no longer an extremist outside the political field.”

Erwan Lecoeur, far-right specialist

at franceinfo

The candidacy of Eric Zemmour for the presidential election also facilitated the task of the boss of the RN, according to the sociologist. “Eric Zemmour helped make it likeable, almost moderate”, he analyzes. Where the candidate Reconquest! favored the permanent controversy and the saturation of media space, its rival “carried out a therapy campaign, after a five-year period of permanent crisis, to appease the French”observed in April, for franceinfo, Raphaël Llorca, author of New far-right masks (ed. of Aube).

The results of the legislative elections confirm this dynamic. The far-right party had already gained 5.5 points in the first round, winning 18.7% of the vote (against 13.2% in 2017), the best performance of the movement in a legislative election. “It went a little unnoticed last Sunday, but the only team that can boast of having made significant progress in votes compared to 2017 and which will progress in seats is the National Rally”observed Brice Teinturier on Saturday in The Parisian.

The crumbling of the Republican front

The opponents of the RN blame each other for the frontist breakthrough, each accusing the other of having renounced the Republican front during the intervening period. The Nupes does not digest having been assimilated to the RN by the presidential camp, which maintained the vagueness on its voting instructions and said that it wanted to fight indiscriminately “the extremes”. “By putting an equal sign between the far right and the Nupes, the macronists have turned their backs on republican values ​​and given the RN its biggest score in history”was indignant the environmentalist senator Mélanie Vogel, on Twitter. “Macron is directly responsible for the RN score”pressed the “rebellious” MEP Manon Aubry.

According to a count of Release published on Wednesday, only 11% of candidates Together! beaten in the first round had clearly called for a vote for the finalist opposed to the RN. always according to Release, less than 8% of eliminated Nupes candidates had asked their voters to support the candidate opposed to the RN in the second round. A position denounced by the executive, Sunday evening. “There were calls to the Republican front which were not necessarily heard, or which were not very clear, especially in the Together-RN duels”lamented the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, on France Inter.

The softness of calls to block the RN was felt at the polls, told franceinfo Mathieu Gallard, director of studies for the Ipsos institute. “When an RN candidate was facing a Nupes candidate, the voters of Ensemble! did not go to vote for the candidate of the left, he delivers. And when an RN candidate faced a candidate from Ensemble!, the voters of Nupes did not move either. There is no longer a republican front, or on the margins.”

For his part, his colleague Brice Teinturier highlighted an interesting trend concerning the transfer of votes, especially on the side of right-wing voters.

The rejection of macronism

Since the establishment of the five-year term in 2002, no president had obtained a relative majority in the legislative elections. The calendars of the two elections having been aligned, the French had always granted an absolute majority to the political formation of the newly elected president. This is to say the snub for Emmanuel Macron and his presidential coalition. “This reflects a movement of defiance, which is also measured by the tenors of the majority who bite the dust”reports political scientist Jean-Yves Camus to franceinfo.

Did this rejection of the power in place benefit the National Rally? “This election was marked by a significant anti-Macronism, probably underestimated by political observers during the campaign”explains far-right specialist Erwan Lecœur.

“Compared to five years ago, Emmanuel Macron is no longer a surprise, people know him and are often unhappy with him. For many, it was above all a question of voting against him, even if it meant voting for Le Pen. “

Erwan Lecoeur, sociologist

at franceinfo

The left opposition was quick to credit the head of state with this breakthrough of the RN. “If the National Rally is at this level in the country, it is also the consequence of the five years of policy of Emmanuel Macron, who destroyed the country, who brought down our republican institutions and our motto”castigated the deputy of La France insoumise Bastien Lachaud, on France Inter.

Choice of campaign themes

On the sets, Sunday evening, the figures of the RN saw in this “tsunami” electoral reward for in-depth work on promising themes. First mentioned: purchasing power. “We have made proposals throughout this campaign, in particular to restore purchasing power to the French”underlined the new RN deputy for Gironde Edwige Diaz, on France Inter. According to interim RN President Jordan Bardella, his party’s candidates have taken advantage of “Emmanuel Macron’s impotence” in terms of “purchasing power”.

Already during the presidential campaign, Marine Le Pen had done well on this theme. “Eric Zemmour came to compete with her on immigration, and she fell back on the theme which was the first concern of the French”, recalled in April to franceinfo the historian Nicolas Lebourg. Since then, inflation has soared, extending in particular to food after having affected the fuel budget of motorists. Opposite, the executive struggled to find the parade. “Emergency laws for purchasing power will be the first texts of this five-year term”, promised at the end of May the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne. But hesitations appeared on the calendar and on key measures such as the food check.

Despite a sluggish start to the campaign, and overshadowed by the outbreak of the Nupes, the RN also kept the ear of many voters by broadening its themes beyond purchasing power, according to far-right specialist Jean – Yves Camus. “Marine Le Pen did what needed to be done, a campaign on all subjects relating to the daily life of the French: the dilapidation of the health system, medical deserts, security…” The incidents at the Stade de France have, for example, allowed the RN to return to the field of security in recent weeks and to reach the right-wing electorate, abounds on franceinfo political scientist Gilles Ivaldi.


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