how the RN is already refining its strategy for the second round

Two days before the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally is still favored in all the polls. If Marine Le Pen estimates that around ten candidates could be elected in the first round, the party is already thinking about its strategy for the second round.

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Posters of the National Rally for the European elections, June 10, 2024. (DENIS CHARLET / AFP)

If the polls place it at the top of voting intentions in the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally must think about its strategy for the second round. Marine Le Pen estimates that around ten deputies should be elected on Sunday evening. But, for others, you have to think about which line to take.

On the argument side, the National Rally is going to force the point: to fully play the “dégagisme” card towards the Macronist candidates and that of the “repel” effect towards the New Popular Front. And this even against socialist or communist candidates.

“We will insist on the fact that all the left-wing parties have allied themselves with LFI and Jean-Luc Melenchon, because they are the ones who scareexplains a party strategist. Our message will be: do you want Bardella or Mélenchon at Matignon?”he slips, although the leadership of the New Popular Front has specified that the rebellious leader is not “candidate for nothing“.

In fact, in many constituencies, the National Rally is preparing for triangular or even quadrangular elections. That is, three or four candidates in the second round: To win a legislative election in the first round, a candidate must obtain 50% of the votes cast and 25% of registered voters. If this is not the case, then a second round is organized with all the candidates having obtained the vote of at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters.

The party with the flame also anticipates several withdrawals of other candidates, “in the name of the republican front“. A strategy that would not have “no effect on voters”according to a party official, because according to him, “These are maneuvers that annoy people.” A close friend of Marine Le Pen assures that the 30% threshold exceeded in the European elections will cause a real trigger among voters: “Public opinion now knows that we can be in the majority”she says.


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