how the pieces of the ukrainian counteroffensive continue to fit together

When will the Ukrainians return to the attack? Like the pieces of a puzzle, the elements of a new counter-offensive after that of last summer and fall, are coming together. In the Donbass, the Russian army has been trampling since the beginning of winter. And, meanwhile, on the battlefield, the conditions for a breakthrough by the Ukrainian army are becoming clearer.

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First, Western weapons arrive: German Leopard and British Challenger tanks are now deployed on the battlefield. Second point: the first training of Ukrainian soldiers in the West is coming to an end and some of the men are ready. And then, finally, above all, the strikes in depth are multiplying in the regions of Kharkiv and Kherson. These territories were the scene of the great Ukrainian offensives of the autumn.

Some signs don’t lie

“There are certain signs that do not deceive, explains Olexandr Kovalenko, researcher and expert in military strategy. Shooting at Russian infrastructure is increasing, whether at ammunition depots or command centers. Another proof: the Ukrainian army concentrates its fire and destroys the anti-aircraft defense of the enemy.” What could the Ukrainian counter-offensive look like then? For Olexandr Kovalenko, one thing is certain, this is only one step.

“If this counter-offensive takes place, it will not allow the liberation of all the territories in respect of the 1991 borders, it will not be enough: there will be other attacks in the future in several places.”

Olexandr Kovalenko

at franceinfo

The researcher imagines a reconquest in three stages: the coming offensive, followed by a siege of the Crimean peninsula and finally a fierce battle for the Donbass, fortified for almost ten years.