For the left, 2022 is not 2017. Disunited in the legislative elections five years ago, La France insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party (PS), the French Communist Party (PCF) and Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV ) presented candidates this time under a common banner. With a rather promising intermediate result for them: the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) gathered 25.6% of the votes in the first round, Sunday June 12, neck and neck with Together! (25.2%), the presidential majority coalition. La Nupes qualify in the second round in “more than 500 constituencies”assured the leader of the coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
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The first round of legislative elections at national level thus shows that this unprecedented alliance was well received by voters. Ultimately, the united left can hope for between 150 and 190 parliamentary seats for the next five years, according to the latest projections of seats by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, to be taken with caution. In the second round of 2017, the PCF, the PS, LFI and EELV had elected only around fifty parliamentarians.
The left-wing coalition intends to prevent the presidential camp from having an absolute majority, even with the Together banner (The Republic on the move, the MoDem, Agir and Horizons), which seemed acquired at the start of the campaign. “We have one week left to block Macron”hammered the deputy LFI François Ruffin, qualified in the second round in his constituency of the Somme. “The presidential party is beaten and defeated. (…) Swarm the polling stations”, called an unusually serious Jean-Luc Mélenchon on Sunday evening. It is not just the tone that has changed compared to the presidential election: now, the leader of the “rebellious” no longer seeks to settle in Matignon, but to form a group strong enough to block Emmanuel Macron.
Thus, despite the significant progress in terms of seats, the Nupes should not win, contrary to what it hoped. Moreover, the score of this alliance in percentage of votes is not higher than that of the various left-wing parties in 2017. “The two alternatives, the left and the extreme right, do not really appeal and meet their glass ceiling”analyzes political scientist Virginie Martin.
The site of the union of the left, which disturbed the various candidates throughout the presidential campaign, really opened before the second round, in April. From informal discussions to official negotiations, the four parties involved in this alliance have brought together a coalition, with an official launch of Nupes on May 7. In this new configuration put in place in a few days after years of blocking, Jean-Luc Mélénchon, leader of La France insoumise, found himself on the front line. “I propose that you elect me Prime Minister”he repeated at length of interviews. “With these words, Jean-Luc Mélenchon was able to mobilize the electoral base of the left”assured Benjamin Morel, doctor of political science before the first round.
Faced with the agitation of the Nupes, the executive was slow to enter the legislative campaign for good. The new government was long overdue and business was linked for Emmanuel Macron’s camp, with the appointment of Damien Abad to the Ministry of Solidarity despite accusations of rape and the criticized management of the flow of supporters in the League final champions at the Stade de France. The Nupes camp has not been spared controversy, with the withdrawal of the candidacy of Taha Bouhafs, journalist and activist, accused of sexual violence.
Week after week, the Nupes has however installed a frontal match against the banner Together!, which includes among others LREM, the MoDem and Horizons. On the ground, the 50 communist candidates, the 70 socialists, the 100 environmentalists and some 350 “rebellious” have hammered home their opposition to retirement at 65 or their desire to raise the minimum wage to 1,500 euros net. In the home stretch of a sluggish campaign, the duel has become tense. As offensive as his ministers, Emmanuel Macron got involved, criticizing the many “bans” proposed by the left alliance, “which gives a fairly clear idea of the spirit of the program”according to the President of the Republic.
A few days before the first round, fear began to cross the ranks of La République en Marche and its MoDem and Horizons allies: what if Jean-Luc Mélenchon came to deprive the executive of the majority? “The President of the Republic is paralyzed and does not know what to do”, said the Marseille parliamentarian, on June 5. That day, the candidates of the Nupes qualified in ten of the eleven constituencies of the French abroad, twice as many as five years ago, when the left presented itself in dispersed order. A week later, Sunday June 12, the Nupes confirmed its dynamic without taking off on the centrist alliance.
There remains a major obstacle to overcome to achieve massive opposition in the National Assembly: the left-wing candidates could face a possible anti-Nupes barrage in the second round, in a week. “We have a week ahead of us, a week to convince, a week to obtain a strong and clear majority”explained Elisabeth Borne on Sunday, who raised the specter of a “political instability” and of “threat to the values of freedom, equality, fraternity and secularism. This first round shows that these values are still in danger”. United recently, the left will now face a coalition of interests against it.