The great uncertainty. No, it’s not the pitch of an Alfred Hitchcock script pulled out of the drawers, but the title of the film that is being played behind closed doors within the macronie. Legislative elections are scheduled for June 12 and 19 and yet nothing has been settled yet. “We don’t even know the process [de désignation]“, confesses to franceinfo an LREM deputy. During the group meeting, Tuesday April 26, “there was a lot of nervousness, people wanted to know, but there is no info”, testifies this same parliamentarian, while the applications to the prefecture are expected between May 16 and 20.
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A month and a half before the election, there are still many questions to be decided. Who to renew among the outgoing majority? Who to invest in the other constituencies? Under what label will the candidates go into battle? What about potential alliances? If LREM, represented by the President of the National Assembly, Richard Ferrand, and its partners have been negotiating these various points for several months, “the great chef”, Emmanuel Macron, is just beginning to put his nose in this oh so important file.
Without a majority in the Assembly, the re-elected president knows that he will not be able to implement his reforms as he sees fit. This is why he is personally involved in this file and why the macronie is suspended from his decisions. In his entourage, however, the omnipotence of the Head of State is relativized. “To say that he will decide everything is a big word, but he will have a watchful eye on those who will make up his majority.
The calendar is also a source of uncertainty. The list of candidates should be announced “within a fortnight”, but the strategy is, again, not defined. Will the 577 candidates be announced in one piece or in waves, starting with the deputies in place? “It will be decided this week”, answers an adviser to the executive. Unlike 2017, when Emmanuel Macron’s movement had launched a vast call for applications, collecting thousands of CVs, the macronie this time has outgoing candidates. Many outgoing … 267 on the LREM side, 57 at the MoDem and 22 at Agir, the three majority groups.
Many of them dream of being MPs again. “Of the 350, you have 310-320 who are returning”, says a MoDem executive. But there will also be those who will not be renewed. About fifteen. “It will be very marginal”, assures the entourage of Emmanuel Macron. Two criteria have been established to evaluate parliamentarians: their loyalty and the political situation in their constituency. The results of the presidential election will thus be dissected.
“There are people who only played for their faces and who showed disloyalty. And then when, in addition, the circo risks being lost…”
A framework of the majorityat franceinfo
The MP’s performance was not retained as a determining criterion. “In a group, you always have good and bad. Don’t throw them away just because they didn’t perform great.”, confides a tenor of the MoDem. To facilitate the work of the president, sheets have been established: short for those leaving who do not pose a problem, a little more extensive for those whose renewal raises questions, and longer still for applicants in the territories to be conquered.
So much for the situation, at least on paper. In practice, it is also necessary to agree between the different currents of the majority who all claim their share of the cake. The clouds point towards Horizons, the party of Edouard Philippe, which is eyeing a hundred constituencies. “We have vocation to be a structuring pillar of the majority in loyalty and coherence”, ensures the mayor of Saint-Germain-en-Laye (Yvelines), Arnaud Péricard.
Even if it means being a little greedy? “We saw a lot of Horizons candidates arrive in the first lists in front of our outgoing LREM”, plague an adviser to the executive. An episode that illustrates the tensions between Emmanuel Macron and his former head of government. “I said to Edouard Philippe: ‘Do not come to touch the outgoing'”reports a majority executive, who adds: “Unless the parties decide otherwise.”
“No candidate will be elected with Philippe’s head next to him, but with Macron’s.”
An executive adviserat franceinfo
The dissensions between the two formations have reached a new level for a few days. In the political office on Tuesday April 26, the former Prime Minister declared, according to several AFP participants: “I’m never bound by a deal I didn’t make.” Without consultation, Horizons could present candidates including in the constituencies affected by an agreement between the majority and LR deputies. According to our information, a small third of Les Républicains deputies would indeed be tempted by the Macron adventure.
But Macronie warns: “Supporting the president is not worth investiture. It’s not automatic. We’re not the Spanish inn. Yes, hands are outstretched and doors open, but it will be on a case-by-case basis.” Unlike 2017 when socialist candidates were doubly invested by their party of origin and LREM, this time, it will be necessary to choose: to be clearly in the majority or to have a candidate opposite.
If relations between Horizons and LREM are stormy, it is quite different between the MoDem and the party founded by Emmanuel Macron. This contrasts with 2017 when the subject of investitures had created some tension between the two formations. François Bayrou’s party is also pleased with the agreement reached which would allow it to keep the same number of deputies as at present. But will we still find a MoDem group during the next legislature? “That’s a good question, I don’t have the answer yet”, assures a tenor of the party. The reconciliation between the MoDem and LREM is still on the table. “It’s progressing well. Will it take the form of a marriage, a Pacs or a cohabitation? I don’t know”confides a close friend of Emmanuel Macron. “Are we ready for a merger? I don’t know”we also answer on the MoDem side.
Beyond these two parties, it is the very configuration of the future majority that raises questions. On the evening of the first round, Emmanuel Macron called for the founding “a great political movement of unity and action”. Three weeks later, the idea of a single party, which neither Edouard Philippe nor François Bayrou likes, seems buried. The association of the different currents of the majority is privileged. “A ‘confederal’ project makes it possible to bring differences to life”supports a framework of the MoDem.
“Do you see a single party from Estrosi (ex-LR) to Rebsamen (ex-PS)? You risk ending up with something so caporalized that the only opposition will come from LFI or the RN.”
A tenor of the MoDemat franceinfo
An opinion shared in high places. “The president has nothing against the parties, it is not a question of erasing sensitivities”, explains a close friend of the head of state. Legislative candidates therefore run the risk of campaigning under the banner of the presidential majority, but retaining their original partisan label. And in doing so, the Assembly should again include several groups of the majority.
Finally, it remains to find the name of the future banner of the majority. Why not “Together citizens!”, named after this alliance of the different majority currents launched at the end of November? It has never really been used. On the other hand, all believe in the chances of victory. “The absolute majority is not unattainable, the president can have it”assures a relative of Emmanuel Macron. In 2017, many doubted a broad victory for the macronists in the legislative elections before they seized the Palais Bourbon with 314 deputies out of 577. Five years later, everyone dreams of repeating the feat.