He had time to receive Amélie Oudéa-Castéra, the Minister of Sports, and Stanislas Guerini, the Minister of Public Service. And then, everything came to a halt on June 9. The dissolution of the National Assembly brought the “budget conferences” led by Thomas Cazenave, the Minister responsible for Public Accounts. As the ministry’s website points out, this first stage of the budget negotiation allows “to identify points of agreement and disagreement on appropriations and expenditures”. With the dissolution, these are “Lpolitical discussions, both between ministers and with parliamentarians” which have been frozen, Thomas Cazenave told franceinfo. But, he assures, “The exchanges continued” Since, “at the level of advisers, with the other ministries.”
The 2025 Finance Bill (PLF) is being constructed in an unprecedented political context. The early legislative elections did not allow for an absolute majority in the Palais-Bourbon and therefore the rapid formation of a new government. On July 16, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal handed in his resignation to Emmanuel Macron, who tasked him with “current affairs”, while waiting for a new team to be put in place. A period that should last at least a few weeks, Emmanuel Macron not having planned to appoint a new Prime Minister before “mid-August”.
However, the timetable for voting on the budget is constrained and framed by the Constitution. In September, the draft finance bill is sent to the High Council of Public Finance, then to the Council of State, so that they can issue their opinions. Then, the organic law relating to finance laws (LOLF) specifies that “LThe draft finance bill for the year (…) shall be submitted no later than the first Tuesday in October of the year preceding the year in which the budget is implemented.” In short, the PLF must arrive this year at the National Assembly no later than Tuesday, October 1.
So what happens if the current resigned government is still in office? Can it present a budget? “The system of dispatching current affairs must ensure the continuity of the State. To ensure the continuity of the State, it is necessary to have a budget”assures the Prime Minister’s entourage.
“The doctrine considers that a government which deals with current affairs can present a budget.”
Gabriel Attal’s entourageto franceinfo
“As every year, the administrations are working on proposals in order to draw up a budget. They will be submitted to the ministerial offices in due time.”they assure us from Matignon. “The budget department is working, we are not going to leave France without a budget”also advances the entourage of Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of Economy and Finance.
On the other parties’ side, the Republicans share this vision. “France cannot stop functioning. It seems to me essential and indispensable that the process relating to the establishment of a budget takes place, to avoid a blockage”underlines the deputy Véronique Louwagie, leader of her camp in the finance commission of the Assembly. Her socialist equivalent, Philippe Brun, also admits that “We need a working basis” and that’“It is good that Bercy is working on the budget, that our administrations are preparing it.” If the New Popular Front took the reins of Matignon in September, it would be “impossible to completely redo a budget” recognizes the PS deputy. “If we are in power next week, then it will be possible”he adds.
The National Rally, for its part, contests the legitimacy of the presidential camp carrying a PLF.I do not see how the resigning government can present a finance bill. If the budget is a routine matter, while it has been the heart of representative democracy for three centuries, what is not a routine matter?” Jean-Philippe Tanguy, member of the Finance Committee, is annoyed.
“All these people are leading us towards a crisis of regime which, very often, has a budgetary origin.”
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, RN MPto franceinfo
“The PLF is the budgetary version of a political vision, so for mefurther supports the general secretary of the RN group, Renaud Labaye. And there would be a big constitutional problem since you cannot censure a resigning government.” Effectively, MPs cannot file a motion of censure against a government that has already been dismissed, which also means that recourse to Article 49.3 is impossible for the executive.
On the substance, many questions also remain unanswered. What will the draft budget presented by Gabriel Attal’s government contain if it is still in place at the start of the school year?The budget that we are preparing must keep our European commitments to reduce the deficit to 3% in 2027. We are not going to prepare a budget that is out of line.”says Bruno Le Maire’s entourage. “There is a very technical part in the construction of the budget. The future government will be able to make political decisions at the last moment if the president appoints someone from the NFP to Matignon”it is specified. Bruno Le Maire confided to the Echoes that he would propose to the Prime Minister, before August 15, “ceilings by ministry which will allow the reduction of State expenditure to continue in 2025”, it is up to his successor to respect them or not.
On the left, which agreed on Tuesday evening on the name of Lucie Castets to obtain Matignon, the PS is in favor of “A PLF that is as neutral as possible”. “Administrations must work on a budget that tries to maintain past balances. On the other hand, the big savings that Bruno Le Maire is talking about are a no.”dismisses Philippe Brun.
“In 2024, we must generate 25 billion euros in savings to meet our public finance objectives. We must do it now, or it will be too late, because France will definitively diverge from its 19 eurozone partners,” declared on July 11 to FigaroBruno Le Maire. So far, 15 billion euros of savings have already been implemented.
So all that remains is to find the 10 billion euros in savings: 5 billion will be requested from ministries, two billion from local authorities and three billion should be released by a more effective taxation of rents on energy companies. But, Bruno Le Maire specified, “It will be the political responsibility of the next government to validate or not these options.” Whether or not the left-wing coalition wins Matignon at the start of the school year, the NFP deputies are preparing to submit numerous amendments from their programme. Philippe Brun cites, for example, the re-establishment of the ISF, or the increase in the civil servants’ index point.
The deputies of the presidential camp are also working on it, in the hope of seeing the birth of a coalition ranging from the moderate right to the republican left. “Whatever happens, the next budget cannot be a continuation of the existing budget given the issues associated with it. We therefore need a political team to build it after the Olympic Games,” argues Mathieu Lefèvre, Renaissance MP, member of the Finance Committee. The Republicans could provide valuable support in reducing spending. They stated, during the presentation of their legislative pact on Monday, “to contribute immediately to a 25 billion savings plan.”
“Given the catastrophic situation of our public accounts, the current deficit and the evolution of the level of debt, there is no more time to lose.”
Véronique Louwagie, LR MPto franceinfo
However, LR and the presidential camp alone do not have an absolute majority in the Palais-Bourbon. There are therefore many unknowns at this time regarding the budget vote. However, the hypothesis of a “shutdown” in the French way, that is, the paralysis of the country’s administration after a political blockage on the budget, is impossible. Article 47 of the Constitution provides that if Parliament has not ruled on the budget within seventy days, the government may proceed by ordinance. Furthermore, if the text could not be adopted within the time limit (i.e. before December 31), the government could ask Parliament to vote on a special law to raise the tax and ensure the continuity of the State.