This is a turning point for Sweden. The right-wing bloc narrowly won the legislative elections on Sunday, September 11, according to partial results (in Swedish) covering almost 95% of the polling stations. With 49.7% of the vote, the right won 175 seats, one more than the left bloc, supporting outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. If these results are confirmed after the complete counting of the postal votes on Wednesday, Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the Moderates (Moderate Rally Party), is in a good position to form the next government of the country. A major change after eight years of social democratic government.
Sweden elects its deputies proportionally, so a coalition will be needed to govern. On the right, it is certain that it cannot be formed without the support of the far-right party, Democrats of Sweden, which came second with 20.6% of the vote, behind the Social Democrats (30.5%). . Never has this party, founded in the late 1980s by neo-Nazi groups, achieved such a high score in legislative elections. Result: it is impossible for the Swedish right to govern without this anti-immigration movement. And if any collaboration with the Democrats of Sweden had so far been refused, the option is now being considered by several parties. Explanations.
A campaign focused on insecurity and immigration
The second place of the Democrats of Sweden owes nothing to chance. The campaign, dominated by discussions of insecurity, immigration and energy prices, was particularly favorable to the far-right party, which has been plowing these topics for years. “The significant increase in violence in Sweden should not be taken lightly, particularly because of shootings and settling scores between rival gangs”underlines Nicholas Aylott, political scientist at the University of Södertörn (county of Stockholm). “It is not surprising that there is a political reaction to this.”
By imposing its themes in the debate, the far-right party has succeeded in becoming essential in the eyes of voters. “Swedes trust the far right the most to handle these issues, according to several opinion polls”, confirmed Zeth isakssona sociologist at the University of Stockholm. “Far-right movements are strong when people feel their country is going in the wrong direction, and that’s what happens, especially in places with high crime rates.”
“This result is also the sign of the end of the Swedish exception at certain levels, in particular on the opening of the country to immigration, now called into question.”
Nicholas Aylott, political scientistat franceinfo
This historic score for the far right is also the expression of deep resentment within an increasingly polarized Swedish society, like the election results, analyzes Zeth Isaksson: “As long as there are places, like in the countryside, where people think they don’t matter, then the far right will be high.” Sweden’s Democrats now exceed 40% in some municipalities, particularly in the south of the country.
A “normalization” strategy
The good results of the Democrats of Sweden are not only due to the news. They are also the result of a “normalization” strategy started several years ago by Jimmie HASkessonthe leader of the party. The 43-year-old politician, at the head of his formation since 2005, has taken care to distance himself from the troubled past of the Democrats of Sweden, notes the Guardian (in English)and to moderate some of its positions. “The party notably abandoned its opposition to NATO membership and Sweden’s participation in the EU.notes Nicholas Aylott. It was a way of allowing collaboration with the other right-wing parties, which are pro-European.“
A winning strategy for a party that went from 5.7% of the vote in 2010 to 12.9% in 2014, then 17.5% in 2018. “It says a lot about how far we’ve come, about the small party that everyone laughed at. (…) Today we are the second largest party in Sweden”Jubilee Jimmie Akesson on Sunday, in front of his supporters.
Born into a middle-class family in the small town of Sölvesborg (south of the country), the very divisive far-right leader “is a true political professional”valued Zeth isakssonwho notes that, “for 80% of voters, his personality is an important reason for their vote [selon un sondage réalisé à la sortie des urnes]“.
The end of the “sanitary cord” on the right
The Moderates party, the main conservative movement which hardened its rhetoric during the campaign, does not rule out working with the Democrats of Sweden. A turning point in the political life of the country, when a “sanitary cord”according to Nicholas Aylott, had been put in place by the rest of the political class around the extreme right. The formation of a right-wing government in 2018 had also failed for this reason.
This time, the first negotiations have begun hasvant even the final results since Jimmie Akesson was received by the Moderates Monday in Stockholm. After his visit, he said he was ready, on Twitter, “to participate constructively in a change of power”.
But faced with the reluctance of the Liberals, a center-right party, the far right could be forced to settle for a supporting role from Parliament, without accessing important ministerial posts. If the Democrats of Sweden do not join a future coalition, the right will leave the field open to the Social Democrats, at the head of a minority government before the elections.
“We can expect the future government to take strong decisions against crime, especially in the area of justice, and to restrict the conditions for immigration.”
Nicholas Aylott, political scientistat franceinfo
The Democrats of Sweden will have a great influence on the future policy of the government if it is led by Ulf Kristersson, the right-wing bloc’s candidate for prime minister. But disagreements could still quickly emerge, particularly in terms of economic policy. “Liberals and Moderates are in favor of lower taxes and a smaller state. The Democrats of Sweden are not at all”emphasizes Nicholas Aylott.
The possible participation of the far-right party in a future government is further damaging the image of a country known for its moderation and its openness to the world. Still, Sweden’s Democrats risk coming up against the reality of power and eventually lose part of their electorate. “By taking part in power, it becomes difficult to have an anti-elite discourseto analyse Zeth isaksson. The coming to power of this kind of party rarely goes well, because it is easier to criticize than to act.”