The cost of rebuilding Ukraine could reach 700 billion dollars. The damage is colossal and work has already begun in some parts of the country now spared from the fighting.
The war is not over yet, but in Ovroutch, a small town in northern Ukraine, a school will soon be built. The workers have been busy since last December to build the establishment, which will accommodate kindergarten students. The old building had been destroyed in airstrikes, weeks after Russia began to invade the country on February 24, 2022. And although the missiles are no longer falling for now, a bomb shelter will be built in the new school complex.
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The Ovroutch school is far from the only one to have been destroyed by Russian forces. In August, on TwitterTHE Ukrainian Ministry of Defense had estimated at 140 000 the number of residential buildings destroyed or damaged. Since then, thousands more have been gutted. Added to this is the cultural heritage, the bridges, the roads, the hospitals or the power stations destroyed by the Russian bombardments. According to UN figures reported by the radio Voice Of America* in December, half of the country’s energy infrastructure was destroyed.
Rebuild quickly and well
The extent destruction is immense. But this state of affairs did not prevent the Ukrainian authorities from getting down to the reconstruction of the country without waiting for the end of the war. Almost everywhere, as in Ovroutch, the authorities are repairing destroyed buildings, clearing the ground, rebuilding arteries and restoring the electricity supply. “Ukrainians rebuild as soon as things are destroyed, in particular thanks to the help of the diaspora, it is for them a form of resistance”, explains François Grünewald, Managing Director of the Urgence Réhabilitation Développement group. Ukrainian local authorities “did not wait for international aid to start”notes the specialist, especially since the urgency is to ensure that “the inhabitants can live when it is very cold”.
The reconstruction effort mobilizes all layers of society, from citizens to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky… but also foreign actors. The Ovroutch school, for example, is a project financed by Estonia*, which sends prefabricated modules to Ukraine which are then assembled by Ukrainian workers. “As a small country, we don’t have a very high GDP, which limits our ability to help. That’s why this kind of small project allows us to act quickly”explains Tiit Riisalo, director of the Estonian Center for International Development, an organization that also helps to rebuild a bridge in Malyn.
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But was it better not to wait until the end of the war to launch such a project? ?
“We want to give hope to Ukrainians because we understand the kind of stress they live under.”
Tiit Riisalo, director of the Estonian Center for International Developmentat franceinfo
And to add: “And then we rebuild in a part of the country where there is no more fighting.”
This ability to quickly repair infrastructure is no accident. Ukraine thus has “of skills and human resources, such as architects, engineers and masons, of very high quality”, emphasizes François Grünewald. Above all, the country has “an excellent rail network” which allows it to intervene quickly throughout the territory.
SIf there is no shortage of skills, the needs are above all material. “The first need is for energy, water and heating, so we have to repair the infrastructure”explains Martin Duplantier, architect and urban planner, president of the Association Architecture and building owners, who works on many Ukrainian projects. But if it is necessary to rebuild quickly, it must also be done well.
“We must resist the temptation to build something temporary that only lasts 10 years, we must build in a sustainable way.”
Martin Duplantier, architect and urban plannerat franceinfo
Damage at exorbitant cost
In the long term, the sinews of war remains the question of money. At present, and despite the example of the Estonian project, international aid is not “not enough”emphasizes François Grünewald. “There is a reflection on the part of international actors which is to say: ‘It is useless to rebuild if it is going to be destroyed’. But this is misunderstanding the Ukrainians”add the specialist, who is alarmed at the lack of help “to face the cold and repair the destroyed buildings”.
The question therefore arises of quantifying the cost of the country’s reconstruction. A report published in September by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank and the European Commission and relayed by Reuters* puts the figure at 350 billion dollars. But estimate an amount “is a difficult task, in particular, because Ukraine does not control 18% of its territory and we do not know the date of the end of the conflict”details Yuriy Gorodnichenko, member of CEPR and professor of economics at the University of California and co-author ofa report on the reconstruction of Ukraine*.
“What is clear is that the figure will probably be around 700 billion euros, but it could be higher.”
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, economistat franceinfo
Especially since it will also be necessary to repair the heritage of the country, hard hit by the strikes, which is expensive.
Towards a Marshall Plan for Ukraine ?
The sum makes you dizzy. Where to find this money, when the country’s deficit is expected to reach $46 billion this year ? Several voices, including the UN General Assembly, are speaking out to ensure that Russia pays damages once the war is over. “It’s been seen before, like with Iraq after the invasion of Kuwait, it’s important to have this discussion now”, recalls Yuriy Gorodnichenko. And if Russia refuses to pay, the track of financing by Russian assets frozen in Europe is put forward by some.
Western countries will in any case be called upon to contribute. A conference on the subject was also organized in France in November and nearly a billion euros had been promised there to help Ukrainians face the winter. “But the sums are not sufficient, even if the money will be spent over 10 to 15 years”emphasizes Yuriy Gorodnichenko.
“No one is really mobilizing on the subject for the moment. Experience shows us that promises are just promises.”
François Grünewald, engineerat franceinfo
Many voices are proposing a new Marshall Plan, put in place by the United States to rebuild Europe after the Second World War, and thus revive its economy. A report from the German Marshall Fund* suggests that such a plan would push Ukraine to accelerate its democratic reforms and to move closer to European Union standards, which would facilitate its integration. “Projects like the Ovroutch school also allow us to share our know-how on European standards”confirms Tiit Riisalo.
The opportunity to reinvent an entire country
The task undertaken by the Ukrainians promises to be colossal, “the greatest economic project (…) of Europe of our time”even advanced the Ukrainian president last september* Especially since it will be necessary to manage “major environmental problems left over from the war, such as contamination from bombs”notes François Grünewald.
Above all, the authorities will have to think about their priorities. “You don’t repair a city of 100 in the same way 000 inhabitants if only 30 000 come back”explains Alexander Shevchenko, the founder of Restart Ukraine*, a group of Ukrainian researchers, architects and urban planners, who have given themselves the task of thinking about a green reconstruction of the country.
Almost everywhere, initiatives to reflect on the post-war period abound. Like Restart Ukraine, many collectives have been formed around the issue. “We want to work on the needs and allow better coordination”, explains Alexander Shevchenko. His collective has thus set about proposing “a toolbox for local authorities”, the essential interlocutor when it comes to reconstruction. With the help of digital tools and the creation of “methodologies”the group was thus able to launch a pilot project around the city of Chernihiv.
The question of the coordination of the different actors (State, civil society, foreign countries, etc.) will be essential. “We will have to collaborate, coordinate and do things together to create the new Ukrainian city, for and by Ukrainians”summarizes Martin Duplantier.
“Money is not everything. We need a new approach to urban planning, which takes the environment into account.”
Alexander Shevchenko, founder of Restart Ukraineat franceinfo
A way of inventing the new Ukraine, turned towards Europe and detached from its Soviet past, its standardized buildings and its treeless arteries. The exact opposite of the few apartment blocks rebuilt by Russia in the occupied city of Mariupol.
* Links marked with an asterisk refer to content in English.