Since the attack by the Palestinian Islamist group in Israel, tensions have increased on the border with Lebanon. Supported by Iran, Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, warned that it “was ready” to intervene in the event of a ground offensive in Gaza.
A risk of a new front in the war between Hamas and Israel? The Israeli army bombed the outskirts of several towns in southern Lebanon on Friday, October 13, after an explosion on the border between the two countries, according to security sources and an AFP correspondent on site. The same day, a journalist from the Reuters news agency was killed and several others injured during a bombing near the village of Alma el-Chaab, still in this border area.
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Since the Hamas offensive against Israel on Saturday October 7, the region has been the scene of regular clashes. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), deployed in the south of the country, “is actively engaged with the authorities on both sides to try to reduce tension”, the UN said. Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian Lebanese movement and ally of Hamas, bombed Israeli positions on the border and warned that it was “fully prepared” to intervene against Israel “on time”.
Exchanges of fire at the border
Several “terrorists” were killed by the Israeli army on Saturday during an attempt to infiltrate Israel from southern Lebanon, an IDF spokesperson announced. “A drone targeted this commando and killed several terrorists”, he clarified. Already on Monday, the Israeli army announcedsee killed “several armed suspects” who had infiltrated Israel from the North. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an ally of Hamas, claimed responsibility for these infiltrations, reports RFI.
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“We are in a war situation, therefore a communications war. Hezbollah was able to let Islamic Jihad men through, but this remains exceptionaltempers Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). He is the one who controls Lebanon’s southern border, and he has no interest in other groups disrupting the region.” explains the geopolitologist.
Exchanges of fire also took place at the border. If this is indeed a renewal of tensions, they are not unprecedented. They take place in the region of Chebaa farms, “a fixation point that has existed for years”, notes the expert. This Israeli region located between Lebanon and the Golan Heights has long been claimed by Beirut. By bombing Israeli positions, “Hezbollah wants to remind Israel that it is powerful, without engaging in open conflict,” adds Thierry Coville, researcher specializing in the Middle East at Iris.
Hezbollah, Hamas ally, says it is ready to intervene
Will Hezbollah maintain this cautious stance in the future? “We are fully prepared and will take action when the time is right”has already warned the Shiite movement during a rally in support of the Palestinians in Beirut on Friday. “If Israel continues its scorched earth policy [à Gaza]it will accelerate the opening of a front in Lebanon”, has warned Hassan Hoballah, responsible for relations with the Palestinian factions for Hezbollah, quoted by The world.
Hezbollah official also warned that the “Party of God” (Hezbollah’s name) would inevitably enter the conflict “if Israel cuts off the head of Hamas or wipes out the population; if there is a new forced exodus of Palestinians from their land; and if sacred religious sites in Palestine are affected”quoted The world.
“When Hezbollah makes statements, we have to take them seriously. It is a very organized and disciplined group, there is a risk that a larger military operation will happen, but we are not there yet .”
Didier Billion, deputy director of Irisat franceinfo
Hezbollah, more powerful than Hamas, is in fact equipped with an arsenal of tens of thousands of rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel, recalls the American news agency Associated Press. The movement perfected its combat techniques after years of war alongside Bashar Al-Assad’s troops in Syria. But engagement in the war in Israel could, however, be hampered by Hezbollah’s internal ambitions. Like Hamas, the movement is also a political party with elected officials. However, Lebanon has been going through a historic economic and political crisis in recent years, and the population does not want a new war.
Whatever happens, Israel has prepared for the opening of a front in the North. Some 360,000 army reservists have been deployed there. The IDF distributed weapons to civilian volunteers and localities were evacuated. Washington, Israel’s ally, also sent the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford near the Israeli coast and announced a military aid package for Israel.
Iran warns and mobilizes its allies
All eyes are now turning towards Iran. For years, Tehran has been at the head of an “axis of resistance”, which brings together movements opposed to Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran notably provides them with logistical and financial support. To date, the country denies any involvement in the operation carried out by Hamas on October 7 in Israel. But several media, including the Wall Street Journalrevealed that meetings took place this summer in Beirut between leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran to plan the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation.
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Other signs suggest that Israel was targeted with Iran’s acquiescence. According to New York Times, Israeli intelligence officials reported in September that Iran had ordered a vast campaign against Israel, such as carrying out sabotage within its borders or smuggling weapons to the Palestinians. During various meetings of members of the “axis of resistance”, the leaders called for taking advantage of the weakening of Benjamin Netanyahu linked to his very controversial justice reform.
Regardless, Iran’s foreign minister warned Friday that the war could spread to other parts of the Middle East. “If these war crimes committed by the Zionist entity [Israël] don’t stop immediately, then we can imagine any possibility”warned Hossein Amir Amirabdollahian, cited by AP.
“Iran has given indications to its allies to prepare for conflict with Israel, but it is unclear what it will actually doanalyzes Didier Billion. If that were the case, a whole set of dominoes would fall into place. We are in a new phase.”