“The next few days may be the last chance to leave.” The message of the governor of the Ukrainian region of Luhansk, Sergei Gaïdaï, is indicative of the concern of Ukrainian officials. After reaching the kyiv region in central Ukraine, the front gradually moved east, and the Ukrainian authorities fear a massive attack on the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
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These fears are based in particular on the declarations of Moscow, which had announced, as of March 25, its intention to concentrate its offensive on the east of the country. After failing to seize the Ukrainian capital, Russia nevertheless asserted that “the main objectives of the first phase of the operation have been filled”, in the words of the Deputy Chief of the Russian General Staff. And to add that the Russian army was now going “to concentrate the bulk of efforts on the main objective: the liberation of Donbass”.
This territory includes the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where the conflict between government forces and pro-Russian separatists has already raged since 2014. Regions which Russia had not yet taken control of before its refocusing on the east of the country. . According to Julien Théron, researcher at Sciences Po Paris interviewed by franceinfo on March 26, “The territory of Luhansk is almost totally controlled by Russia, but that is not the case for that of Donetsk”.
This state of affairs could change, since the Russian army is massively redeploying towards eastern Ukraine. According to a senior Pentagon official quoted by AFP, two-thirds of the Russian forces that had occupied the kyiv region since the start of the invasion have withdrawn to Belarus, in view, according to him, of a new assault elsewhere in Ukraine. “We see that equipment is coming from different directions, that they [les Russes] bring men, let them bring fuel”Luhansk Governor Sergei Gaidai said in a video message broadcast on April 4.
Russian attacks have since intensified. “All free towns in the Luhansk region are under enemy fire“adds Sergei Gaidai. According to him, the Russian bombardments left one dead, one injured and seven missing on April 6 in the town of Roubizhne. Five other people were injured in the shelling of a humanitarian center in Sievierodonetsk.
The Ukrainian army in the Donbass is also about to be taken in a pincer movement from the north and the south by the Russian forces, as explained by the special envoys of France Télévisions on the spot. To slow down their advance, Ukrainian anti-tank obstacles are multiplying on the strategic road of Krasnopillya, in the Donetsk region, but they have already advanced seven kilometers in a few days. Nearby, the Ukrainian city of Sloviansk is under permanent air alert.
To avoid new massacres of civilians, as in Boutcha in the kyiv region, the Ukrainian authorities have been calling on the inhabitants of these regions for several days to leave for the west of the country. On Thursday, Sergei Gaïdaï announced the establishment of humanitarian corridors for the inhabitants of seven eastern cities, including Sievierodonetsk. The police roam the buildings in search of residents to escort under the crack of bullets. The evacuation order seems to have been heard: the mayor of Dnipro, a city located further west, announced Thursday that a “very large number of people” had arrived from the Donbass in recent days. But many residents have also chosen to stay.
With offensives intensifying, these evacuations are increasingly perilous. According to Sergei Gaïdaï, the 1,200 people evacuated on Wednesday were in the absence of any ceasefire. Further south, the humanitarian convoy organized by the Red Cross for Mariupol has already been postponed several times, in particular due to the lack of security guarantees. “We can’t help anymore” population in the event of a Russian attack, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk warned on Wednesday.
The manager, who coordinates the organization of humanitarian corridors, recalled on Wednesday April 6 that“we must evacuate as long as this possibility exists. For the moment, it still exists”. With the advance of Russian troops in the Donbass, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.