how scientists spot where the next viruses will appear

Ebola, chikungunya, Zika, monkey pox… So many viral diseases, hitherto unknown, which have been spreading around the world for fifty years and raise questions. The most representative, Covid-19, responsible for an extraordinary pandemic, has crystallized all fears and shone all the spotlight on these conditions, 70% of which, transmitted to humans by animals, are called zoonoses. Por a growing number of scientists, these diseases are the consequences of the collapse of biodiversity caused by human activities.

The documentary The factory of pandemics, directed by Marie-Monique Robin, which follows her eponymous book published in February 2021, reviews the various works carried out in several places on the planet by 14 researchers, interviewed by Juliette Binoche. Among them, Rodolphe Gozlan, researcher at the Institute for Research on Development in Montpellier (Hérault), and Mathieu Nacher, epidemiologist. According to the conclusions of their work, carried out jointly, deforestation, the extension of monocultures but also climate change would favor the birth and the multiplicity of these infectious diseases.

“Science, publications have shown, all the same, that epidemics were more and more frequent. That they were getting closer, that they were more and more pandemic, entrusts Rodolphe Gozlan. Emergence factors have been identified. As soon as we have totally different diseases, they have common emergence factors”, continues the researcher. After studying the different regions of the world, the two scientists demonstrate that predicting the appearance of viruses is now possible.

“We have maps with different information on deforestation, the climate, the different diseases, explains Mathieu Nacher. We see by looking around the world, when we pile up this, this, this and this, these are the conditions for emergence. Even before the appearance of Covid-19 in China, the two researchers had thus identified this country as a risk zone.

“There were two areas that stood out, which were eastern China, which includes Wuhan, and then Uganda.”

Mathieu Nacher, epidemiologist

in the documentary “The Pandemic Factory”

Anticipating these epidemics will not prevent their emergence, according to the two researchers. However, not attacking the causes – by preserving biodiversity and the balance of ecosystems – would have a colossal human, financial and ecological cost.

The documentary The Pandemic Factory, directed by Marie-Monique Robin, is visible from Monday, May 23 on the La 1ère Network channels and to be seen again from June 23 on La1ere.frthe digital Overseas offer of France Télévisions.


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