It only lasted 45 days. British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced her resignation on Thursday, October 20, after weeks of ordeal during which she has faced an avalanche of criticism since entering 10 Downing Street on September 6. In question, his first budget, which rocked his beginning of mandate, by providing tax cuts for the richest and new partially funded spending to fight against the energy crisis.
Under pressure from the financial markets and elected Conservatives, the former MP for Norfolk had to abandon most of her plan and dismiss her finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng. A setback that precipitated his fall. How did Liz Truss and the UK get here so quickly?
Let’s rewind. It all starts on September 5. After a fierce campaign against former finance minister Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss has been narrowly nominated by members of the Conservative party to succeed Boris Johnson. The 47-year-old former foreign minister begins his term the next day with a thorn in his side: conservative parliamentarians would have largely preferred his rival, according to several polls.
Above all, the British are particularly skeptical of his promises of massive tax cuts, while inflation is flirting with 10% and the country is sinking into the energy crisis. “She left with a much lower sympathy capital than Boris Johnson. In a way, she was on a trial period”observes Clémence Fourton, lecturer in English studies at Sciences-Po Lille.
The death of Elizabeth II, on September 9, and the national mourning that ensued, monopolize the new Prime Minister. She must wait until September 23 to present a “mini-budget” of neoliberal inspiration. As promised during his campaign, the latter contains measures aimed at lowering taxes for the wealthy and businesses. In addition to these promises, there are colossal support measures for British households affected by soaring energy prices. The cocktail raises fears of a slippage in the public accounts. “The problem is that she planned to finance these measures through growth and borrowing”summarizes Rainbow Murray, professor of political science at Queen Mary University of London. “The markets panicked right away,” she recalls.
The pound made a historic plunge and debt borrowing rates soared, propelling the country into a serious economic crisis. “We can say that she did anything, without taking into account the economic context”, slice Clemence Fourton. Media and political condemnations are raining down.
Political error or incompetence? “I believe there was such a strong level of arrogance and blindness that she thought she could implement her political measures without consequences”analyzes Rainbow Murray. “This economic crisis, completely self-inflicted, is also linked to the fact that she refused to listen to the advice of institutions, such as the Office for Budget Responsibility*, which considered her proposals dangerous”adds Will Jennings, associate professor of political science at the University of Southampton.
Caught in the storm, the Prime Minister tries to defend her plan, with judged interviews “disastrous” by the press. Taunted by the markets, Liz Truss is even criticized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other heads of state, including Joe Biden, who called his plan “of error”. “It is very rare that countries that are friends of the United Kingdom allow themselves to criticize internal politics”, exclaims Rainbow Murray. The United Kingdom even comes out “humbled”judges the American magazine The Atlantic*.
After three weeks of ordeal, the Prime Minister dismissed her Finance Minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, on October 14, hoping to calm the conservatives and financial circles. Nothing works. The British press is in turmoil and resignation rumors are rife. Liz Truss is forced into action. It’s done, Monday, October 17, by the voice of Jeremy Hunt, just appointed Minister of Finance. During a press conference, the latter announced the abandonment of almost all the measures of the “mini-budget”, the introduction of new taxes to the tune of 38 billion pounds, and the promise of new budget cuts. The effect is immediate. The markets are reassured and the pound immediately rises again.
If the financial storm calms down, the pressure does not fall. The same evening, the Prime Minister decides to answer questions from the BBC. She explains “to be sorry” and “wanting to lead the Conservatives in the next election” of the country. A promise that she will not be able to honor: three days later, she announces her resignation during a press conference.
Who will replace Liz Truss? The Conservatives will vote next week to decide. They must act quickly to avoid early elections which would be disastrous for the party, if we are to believe the latest polls*, which give Labor a large lead.
“The Conservatives have lost all credibility on the management of the economy, when they were seen as ‘the’ party on this subject a few months ago.”
Clémence Fourton, lecturer at Sciences Po Lilleat franceinfo
Beyond the case of the Prime Minister, the crisis says a lot about the current state of the economy in the United Kingdom. It is difficult not to see, behind the country’s vulnerability to the markets, one of the consequences of Brexit. “Of course, there was the crisis linked to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, but our economy has been stagnating for years, in particular because of the barriers imposed by the exit from the European Union”notes Rainbow Murray. “Brexit has made an already bad situation worse,” adds the specialist, while the poverty rate explodes and the country is shaken by strikes.
Brexit does not only permeate the economy. Five years after the referendum, it remains at the heart of British politics and contributes to a “instability of power”Judge Will Jennings: “All the Prime Minister changes of the last four years have been linked to this issue. David Cameron left because he lost the referendum and Theresa May because she couldn’t get her agreement ratified.” Boris Johnson, undermined by business, was bogged down in gratuitous attacks on Brussels on the Northern Irish question. Liz Truss, who dreamed of making London a “Singapore on the Thames” ultra-liberal thanks to Brexit, has been overtaken by the economic realities of the country.
In addition, Liz Truss appears in this crisis as a symbol of the end of the reign of the conservatives, in power for almost twelve years. “The party has reigned for too long, it is lost and makes mistakes, it has run out of ideasJustice Rainbow Murray. The same thing happened to Labor after Tony Blair took office. The Tories are at the end of their reign.” Divided on their political identity, between a neo-liberal wing and the other more social, the conservatives “will have to reinvent themselves” and especially “finding new leaders”says the researcher.
For the moment, no figure able to unite the party seems able to emerge. According to a survey Yougov*, published on Tuesday, 32% of Conservative party members want Boris Johnson back, while 23% would prefer to see Rishi Sunak lead the country. Party members will decide.
* Links followed by an asterisk lead to content in English.