The legislative elections in France have been targeted by several attempts at pro-Russian interference on social networks or via websites, according to several recent publications. The aim: to favor the extreme right to the detriment of other political forces.
A war of disinformation. A few days before the second round of the legislative elections, on Sunday, July 7, several publications point to the existence of an influence campaign led by pro-Russian actors on social networks in order to influence the French vote. Objective: to favor the National Rally, whose ideological proximity to Moscow is greater than that of other French political forces.
Among these publications, a study (PDF) of the Institute of Complex Systems, a research unit of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), identifies the emergence of a new “anti-system” political community on the social network X (ex-Twitter) between 2016 and 2022. Within this community, which “seems to build a bridge between La France Insoumise and the far-right bloc”researcher David Chavalarias identifies “influencer” accounts whose content could contribute to “modulate the political-societal debate in France”In recent weeks, the favorite topic of these accounts has been the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the study notes.
This study, called “Ten to Midnight on Putin’s Clock”, focuses on a very prolific anonymous account: it accumulated 253,946 retweets between June 10 and June 27, that is to say between the dissolution of the National Assembly and the first round of the legislative elections. This account, whose “The history is typical of a account operated by the Kremlin or at least under the influence of his propaganda”has released many videos “massacres perpetrated by the government [israélien] in Gaza and the resulting humanitarian crisis”.
:quality(50)/2024/07/01/2024-07-01-17-49-26-minuit-moins-dix-a-l-horloge-de-poutine-6682d020a01a7027376530.png)
“This account tried to connect to the LFI community so that it amplifies and mobilizes on this issue, in a more emotional way than it would have done”explains David Chavalarias, author of the study.
“We are going to try to fracture French society, so that the different groups that will position themselves, either to denounce the terrorism of Hamas or that of the Israeli state, can neither agree nor form a republican front.”
David Chavalarias, research director at the CNRSto franceinfo
While the study notes that there have been attempts at influence in recent weeks, it also notes that they are not new. There are “subversion strategies (…) of low intensity, piloted or influenced for the most part by the Kremlin”stretching over too long a time frame “so that the actors in the debate are aware of it”the study assures.
To convince, all means are good, even the crudest. Another study (PDF) A report by US cybersecurity firm Recorded Future on Russian and Iranian influence networks targeting the French elections, also published in late June, identifies the work of a Russian influence network called CopyCop to denigrate the administration of Emmanuel Macron, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine.
One week before the first round, CopyCop has created two “inauthentic sites” for this purpose: Véritécachée.fr and Franceencolère.fr. This type of site, which the network has already used in the past, is used to publish false information generated by artificial intelligence, sometimes plagiarizing the visual charter of traditional French media to make them more credible. These sites “will likely be used to publish deepfakes targeting the Macron administration”anticipates the report. The paternity of this network is attributed by another report of Recorded Future to John Mark Dougan, a former American policeman living in Russia.
In addition, the study identified another site promoted by CopyCop, which usurps the identity of the presidential coalition Ensemble pour la République. The site promises French citizens a “Macron bonus” of 100 euros in exchange for their vote for the camp of the outgoing president. It also offers to make proxies.
Pro-Russian bots affiliated with the Doppelgänger network amplified this fake news, accusing the coalition of corruption. Since 2022, this network has usurped the charter of major French media and spread anti-Ukraine disinformation to a European audience.
There are other traces of these attempts at influence. Based on data from the Antibot4navalny collective, which specializes in monitoring pro-Russian interference online, the Swedish media outlet SVT Nyheter reports that about a hundred dubious articles were relayed during the French campaign by more than a thousand pro-Russian bots. Emmanuel Macron is mentioned 59 times in a negative way: the president is said to be more concerned about the war in Ukraine than domestic problems, according to propaganda attributed to the Doppelgänger network. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella also appear there, but never negatively.
Also according to SVT Nyheter, fake quotes have been attributed to celebrities, through visuals scattered on the web. One of them presents a black and white photo of the American singer Beyonce, with an incoherent quote: “Scholz [le chancelier allemand] is a puppet and Macron is also a puppet – one American, the other British.”
An interview with actor François Cluzet by TF1 was also hijacked, with a fake dubbing criticizing Emmanuel Macron’s commitment to Ukraine.
These interferences aim, in the long term, to “takeover of France by political figures less hostile to the Putin regime”the CNRS report suggests. In other words, to help the National Rally gain power. The ideological proximity of the extreme party and its financial links with the Kremlin over the past ten years have been widely documented. This strategy of interference is practically assumed by Russian politicians: at the end of 2023, former President Dmitry Medvedev called on Telegram to support the parties “anti-systems” Westerners so that they obtain “correct election results”.
On the social network X, in early July, the Russian Foreign Ministry also clearly supported the far-right party: “The people of France want a sovereign foreign policy that serves national interests and a break with the dictates of Washington and Brussels”he assured, posting a photo of Marine Le Pen, president of the RN group in the National Assembly.
These attempts at interference are not specific to France: they target Western democracies ideologically opposed to the Kremlin. The United States was already targeted during the 2016 presidential election, through the hacking of the Democratic Party and sponsored posts on Facebook, some of which led to real political demonstrations. The En Marche team was also the victim of a cyberattack, just before the second round of the 2017 presidential election. At the origin of these “MacronLeaks”, hackers linked to Russian intelligence, according to an investigation by World.
Should we be alarmed? In its report, Recorded Future believes that the latest attempts to interfere in the vote, “although significant”have a “negligible impact on public opinion and voter behavior”. “The work carried out since 2016 on Russian influence tends (…) rather in the direction of an effect at best very limited of most of these operations“, says Maxime Audinet, researcher at theStrategic Research Institute of the Military School and teacher at the University of Paris-Nanterre, on X.
The influence strategy specialist also cites a 2023 study published in the journal Nature. This does not mention“no evidence of a significant relationship between exposure to the Russian foreign influence campaign and changes in attitudes, polarization or voting behavior” during the 2016 US elections. Recorded Future, for its part, advocates “continuous monitoring (…) to identify and mitigate” these influence operations, alongside “reactive measures (…) calculated and adapted” so as not to aggravate the effects.