How political uncertainty threatens the preparation of the 2025 budget

The 2025 budget must be voted on by the end of the year, but its preparation remains uncertain because the new Prime Minister has still not been appointed.

Emmanuel Macron returned to the south of France to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the landing in Provence on Thursday, August 15. Political forces are growing impatient with the silence of the head of state who has still not announced a name for Matignon, and therefore no government. However, budgetary deadlines are approaching, and are putting pressure on the executive.

The vote on the 2025 budget in the fall is the next decisive political meeting with the urgency of getting France out of the red. The country must also report to the European Commission at the start of the school year because of a public deficit considered “excessive”It reached 5.5% in 2023 above the 3% limit.

This budget therefore appears to be a turning point, and yet we still do not know which government will be responsible for steering the debates, for adopting a very political text that risks antagonizing the opposition, even more so in a chamber divided into three blocs. The dissolution has disrupted the agenda and everything is now postponed. By mid-August, the ministries should normally have received what are called “ceiling letters”, that is to say the very detailed roadmap of the money they will receive next year, and the savings to be made.

However, these documents prepared by Bercy are still on the Prime Minister’s desk, but Gabriel Attal has resigned and has not signed them. “He does not rule out doing so, if he is still at Matignon next week”his entourage assures franceinfo. In the meantime, there is no question, we are told “to create even more cacophony” by signing and sending these letters since everything can be rejected by the next government that is appointed, whether it leans to the left or the right.

The government has until mid-September to send its bill to the Council of State before it is examined in Parliament in early October. Even if there is no catastrophe for the moment, the procedure remains very structured. Emmanuel Macron is already slow to name a Prime Minister. If he does so next week, this new Prime Minister will have to form a government, which could take days or weeks. This new government will have to rework Bruno Le Maire’s document in record time, with, in parallel, opposition MPs who will still not have a copy to prepare their counter-arguments. This will most certainly be the biggest political traffic jam of the end of the holidays.