How much higher are temperatures on Saturday in France compared to the last century?

A heat peak unprecedented in its intensity and precocity crosses France on Saturday, with temperatures which far exceed those measured on the same date at the end of the 20th century.

Exceptionally warm temperatures for the season are expected on Saturday April 6 over a large part of France. Météo-France announces maximums which will approach or reach 30°C in certain areas, notably in the Centre-Val de Loire region and in the South-West. This heat peak, unusual for the start of April, is part of a context of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities.

Comparison with the readings taken on April 6 between 1971 and 2000 shows particularly high temperature differences (calculated from minimums and maximums over the entire day). (see our map below). The symbolic bar of ten degrees of difference has been reached in six of the thirty reference stations used in France by Météo-France to analyze the evolution of temperatures over the long term. The largest difference is noted in Pau, in Béarn, where it will be, according to Météo-France forecasts, 12.1 degrees warmer on Saturday, compared to the average temperature measured on the same day at the end of the Twentieth century.

This heat peak, unprecedented in its intensity for the beginning of April, is the result of a powerful depression over the Atlantic Ocean, as explained by Tristan Amm, forecaster at Météo-France, interviewed by 20 minutes. This phenomenon favors southern winds and draws in very warm air from North Africa.

A spectacular drop from Sunday

But the thermometer should fall as quickly as it rose on Sunday in the wake of a rainy-stormy deterioration. Certain localities, such as Paris, must quickly lose up to ten degrees, according to Météo-France. However, the mercury will still remain above the averages recorded in recent decades, as is now the case most of the time.

Over the past year, across France and Corsica, 308 days have been hotter than the average temperature measured between 1971 and 2000 (84% of the year). Days colder than fifty years ago are now very much in the minority (as shown in our chart below).

Since January 1, only 15 days out of 97 have been less hot than at the end of the 20th century. The first quarter of 2024 was also the hottest ever recorded in France.