How much are draft picks worth?

The Tampa Bay Lightning gave up five draft picks this week to acquire forward Tanner Jeannot.

This transaction has generated strong reactions. Not just among supporters and commentators. Within National League teams, too. “I’m still waiting to be told it’s a printing error,” a team leader told The Athletic.

It’s that most general managers — and even more so, head recruiters — like to rack up draft picks. “The more darts you have, the more chances you have of hitting the target,” imaged Marc Bergevin, in his years with the Canadian. The beauty of the matter? If you hit the target once with a distant pick, the fans will praise you and forgive you for the other unfortunate picks.

For years, the Canadiens have hammered home that all draft picks matter. Proofs ? Brendan Gallagher, selected in the fifth round. Or Jake Evans, at 207^e rank. They are excellent shots, it is true. But we easily forget that for a player of Gallagher’s caliber, there were dozens of simply lost choices, such as Joe Stejskal, Nikolas Koberstein and Casey Staum.

This reflex is well known in psychology. This is the forgetting of the basic frequency. Basically, sometimes, we value a piece of data that strikes the imagination, rather than the total sample.

Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois took this step back from the draft. Since his appointment, he hasn’t hesitated to trade picks, from the first to the last round, to strengthen his team immediately. With success, by the way. He also surely noted that of all the players drafted by the Lightning, for five years, none has yet played 20 games in the NHL.

That’s why for him to trade a pick of 1^er tower, one of 2^e tower, one of 3^e tower, one of 4^e turn and another 5^e tour for Jeannot made sense. “None of those picks would have helped us this year, next year or the next. Our decision was quite easy,” he told the local press.

“There is a certain perception of the value of these choices. Ours differs. Considering the [faible] probability of acquiring quality players with these choices, we prefer to get a good player immediately, to help our core to win. »

What are these probabilities, exactly? What is the value of each draft pick?

I’ve written before about the value of picks in the first two rounds.

But what about subsequent choices? Those of the third, fifth or seventh round?

To establish a value, we first need a solid sample. Let’s focus on the repechages between 2000 and 2016. Why stop in 2016? To allow players sufficient time to establish themselves in the NHL. Seven seasons is the minimum to be able to achieve complete autonomy.

Next, divide the players into three groups.

· Impact Players. More than 200 points or 10,000 minutes. There are obviously stars, like Sidney Crosby and Carey Price, but also established veterans, like Jonathan Drouin, Mike Hoffman, Christian Dvorak and David Savard.

· Support players. Less than 200 points, between 1000 and 10,000 minutes. Think of the players who have spent the majority of their career on a third or fourth line, like Joel Armia, Rem Pitlick and Denis Gurianov.

· Others. Less than 1000 minutes. So, roughly speaking, those who have played less than 75 games, or none at all.

First observation: after the first 60 choices, it’s really difficult to unearth a nugget. The norm, in the third round, is one per team, per decade. Over 100^e choice, the chances of success drop by half.

The Canadian is in the middle. Between 2000 and 2016, he drafted 90 players after the second round. Only five have become impact players: Brendan Gallagher, Mikhail Grabovsky, Jaroslav Halak, Tomas Plekanec and Mark Streit. That’s a 5.5% success rate.

Back to Tanner Jeannot. He does not yet have the statistics of an impact player. Maybe it will reach that status in five seasons. Maybe never, either. So let’s compare him to the players in his category, those of support.

What would have been the odds of the Lightning acquiring an impact or support player between the 25^e and the 60^e choice ? About 40% (11% impact + 28% support). With his subsequent choices? Much weaker.

In fact, from the third round, the majority of players will not even play a single game in the National League.

So, was it possible for the Lightning to acquire an impact player with his choices? Yes. Likely ? Less. It is up to others to take the risk, decided Julien BriseBois.

How one in a hand is sometimes worth more than five you will have.