Although the term “cohabitation” is not used by the new head of government or by the President of the Republic, the Elysée Palace refers to “a demanding coexistence” to define the period that is beginning.
“One of the first questions we asked him was what kind of prime minister does he intend to be?” In front of the press gathered near the Hôtel de Matignon, Bruno Retailleau, the leader of the LR senators, surrounded by his counterpart in the Assembly, Laurent Wauquiez and the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, detailed, on Friday September 6, their meeting with Michel Barnier, appointed the day before. “Will it be a collaborationist Prime Minister, in which case it will be without us, or will it be a full Prime Minister?”continued the Vendée politician.
Bruno Retailleau is not the only one asking this question. What will the relationship be like between the two heads of the executive? What room for maneuver will Michel Barnier have? After 51 days of procrastination and multiple consultations, the former minister and chief Brexit negotiator, but also a figure of the Republicans, has imposed himself in the eyes of Emmanuel Macron. However, the period that is beginning is not a cohabitation in the strict sense, as France experienced in 1986, 1993 and 1997 with an opposition that won elections and had an absolute majority in the Palais-Bourbon. “I have known cohabitations, in any case a cohabitation in which I was one of the ministers [en 1993, dans le gouvernement d’Edouard Balladur]. We are not in that situation,” confirmed Michel Barnier on Friday evening on TF1.
Faced with a National Assembly divided into three blocs, the 73-year-old Savoyard will have to come to terms and invent a new way of working with the President of the Republic. The former minister does not, for the moment, benefit from the full support of his political family or the automatic support of the presidential camp. It is a question of“demanding cooperation”Emmanuel Macron’s entourage told franceinfo, who also mentioned to AFP that of “demanding coexistence“. “It’s a term that can fit”the Prime Minister’s entourage assured franceinfo.
“He was chosen for his negotiating skills. So, he will act with method, listening, dialogue, openness and above all determination.”adds the same source. Michel Barnier will be “very respectful of institutions”assures LR MP Patrick Hetzel. “He will exercise the prerogatives of head of government as defined by the Constitution”adds this parliamentarian who supported him during the right-wing primary for the presidential election in 2021.
Article 20 of the Basic Law provides that “the government determines and conducts the policy of the nation”. Will we therefore see a more literal reading of the Constitution?“We are in a new era. (…) A responsible government that has independence, promised Michel Barnier on TF1. The government will govern and I will do so in good understanding with the President of the Republic.” And the new Prime Minister hammered home the time-honoured formula: “The president must preside, the government must govern.”
“This will be the government of Michel Barnier”, insists Brigitte Kuster, former LR MP and very close to the new tenant of Matignon. “He will have free rein”she assures.
“He is a strong personality who will not be taken in, while being respectful. He has a sense of state and is not someone who likes conflict and confrontation.”
Brigitte Kuster, former MP, close to Michel Barnierto franceinfo
After having long refused a coalition with the president, the party from which the Prime Minister comes could well change its mind and allow itself to be convinced. “It is obvious that some of us will be in government and that will be our way of having an impact.”assures an LR parliamentarian close to Michel Barnier. “Technically, it’s a cohabitation, but it’s hard to imagine Michel Barnier standing up to Macron and banging his fist on the table.”on the other hand, believes, with France Télévisions, a member of the Republican party.
At the same time, the presidential party assures that there will be no “no automatic censorship” but no “blank check” for Michel Barnier. “There will be no desire on our part to block or unconditional support.”wrote to the Renaissance deputies Gabriel Attal, the head of the group, after his meeting with the head of government on Friday morning. “It’s a Prime Minister who is not on the President’s side, so normally, it’s called cohabitationobserves Renaissance MP Ludovic Mendes. Or else we will see if there is a coalition and if Michel Barnier is someone who puts himself above the parties.”
The number of personalities from the central bloc and also their profile within the future government will thus be scrutinized.The colour of the next government will give a clear indication of the balance of power within the executive. Questioned by his camp on Friday morning, Michel Barnier was keen to reassure them. “I have some freedom of maneuver that I want to use.”he told them, according to concordant sources at France Télévisions. The president’s entourage also spoke to franceinfo about the “Freedom of the Prime Minister”mentioning for example the end of a representative of the Elysée during interministerial meetings at Matignon.
Will Emmanuel Macron, often described as a head of state who takes care of everything, intervene less in the conduct of the nation’s policy? “The president has made a lot of commitments that the prime minister should not be censored. Logically, he must now give ground so as not to be responsible for everything,” advocates a Renaissance MP. “Given the political situation, the impetus that the president could give on the reforms to be carried out will necessarily be less, and the latitude of the Prime Minister greater”observes Marc Ferracci, Renaissance MP and close to Emmanuel Macron.
Others would also like to see the former European Commissioner playing the role of firewall. “It is now up to the Prime Minister to protect the President by finding alliances in Parliament”assures Renaissance MP Mathieu Lefèvre. But, behind the scenes, some have doubts, having known how Emmanuel Macron has operated for seven years. “The president clearly wanted to disengage. That said, I don’t see him letting go completely if he sees that the policy being pursued is very divergent from his own,” notes a former advisor to the executive.
But will Michel Barnier’s line, which will not call into question the pension reform, be so different from that of the Head of State? “I see a well-balanced duo given the national and European experience of the Prime Minister (…) and effective since the two political lines are not in frontal opposition”judges the Renaissance deputy François Cormier-Bouligeon. “Michel Barnier is close enough ideologically not to unravel the record”notes political scientist Benjamin Morel.
“If Emmanuel Macron tries too hard to impose his views, he will be a destabilizing force, I think he understands that. The president will concentrate on his reserved areas such as diplomacy or defense.”
Benjamin Morel, political scientistto franceinfo
For this specialist of the Constitution, “Michel Barnier’s real boss will be the Palais-Bourbon, with the RN to manage but also Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe who become his problems”. For a former advisor to Emmanuel Macron, The very complex equation of the National Assembly would almost relegate to the background the question of the future relationship of the executive duo: “I can’t not to imagine how long this Prime Minister can last without censorship.”