Already, Thursday April 7, in the plane which takes them to Perpignan (Pyrénées-Orientales), for the last meeting of Marine Le Pen before the first round of the presidential election, the relatives of the candidate of the National Rally no longer hide their optimism. Because their champion was flying in the polls, even threatening to overtake Emmanuel Macron in the first round.
Finally, the outgoing president came first in the vote, Sunday April 10, with 27.6% of the vote, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions. Marine Le Pen, she collected 23% of the votes, succeeding as in 2017 to qualify for the second round.
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“We are very calm, much more than in 2017”confided Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally. “I am convinced that she will be the next President of the Republic.” In Marine Le Pen’s camp, we no longer refrain from dreaming of the final victory in two weeks. “On April 24, it will be a fundamental choice between two opposing visions of the country: either division and disorder, or the gathering of the French”reacted the far-right candidate to her supporters, after the announcement of the results of the first round.
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It’s been a few weeks since the first round hasn’t really been a question for the entourage of the far-right candidate, who only has eyes for April 24. How should we approach this return match against Emmanuel Macron, winner in 2017? What duel must be delivered to the outgoing president during the famous debate between the two rounds? Five years ago, she admitted on France 2 to have “missed an important meeting”.
The debacle of the second round, lost with 34% of the vote against 66% for Emmanuel Macron, shook the party. “Just after the failed debate, during a dinner, she said to us: ‘Tell me if it’s over, if I have to stop politics and do something else.’ answered no”recounts an RN executive today.
“Rapidly after her failure in 2017, she realizes that there is still something to do but that it will be necessary to prepare better and to change a lot of things.
A leader of the National Rallyat franceinfo
Before returning to battle with his “war machine”says a relative, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen wants to change its appearance. “She says quite quickly that we have to break away from dad’s old-fashioned FN to get out of the outrageous image that this party can sometimes reflect”, redraws a frame. The National Front became the National Rally in 2018 and Jordan Bardella, only 23, became its lead candidate in the 2019 European elections.
She is also changing her method for her third attempt at the presidential election. In a France marked by the crisis of “yellow vests”, Marine Le Pen shows her desire to campaign as close as possible to the field, quietly, almost under the media radars panicked by the emergence of Eric Zemmour, at the summer 2021. A “5,000 markets” operation was launched in January 2022, with around twenty buses criss-crossing France.
At the same time, facing the campaign according to her “Trumpian” of the former polemicist, Marine Le Pen continues the long process of demonizing her party. “In 2012 and 2017, she did protest campaigns. This year, she carried out a therapy campaign, after a five-year period of permanent crisis, to appease the French”analyzes Raphaël Llorca, author of New far-right masks (ed. of Aube). “I’m tired of the noise and the fury. I want efficiency and serenity”she brags to the Figaro, at the beginning of February. In contrast, Eric Zemmour favors permanent controversy and the saturation of media space.
This atypical strategy of the former polemicist seduced some of the personalities of the National Rally, who joined him during the winter, such as Gilbert Collard, Jérôme Rivière and even Marion Maréchal, at the beginning of March. “They are pain in the ass and we are very happy to have gotten rid of them”, savors a member of the first circle of Marine Le Pen at the beginning of April. Nicolas Bay, a former RN executive, inherited the dubious nickname of “Nicollabo” from those close to the candidate. Thought to weaken the candidate of the RN, these rallies produce no effect in the opinion polls. Eric Zemmour even begins to unscrew.
Six months later, the Reconquest candidate recorded a drop in its momentum, as did Valérie Pécresse, falling back to around 10-11%, as shown by the aggregator of @BriceLeBorgne and @math_lehot on @franceinfoplushere > https://t.co/T1AQmvC92r [4/14] pic.twitter.com/rvb88FVkyy
— Thibaud Le Meneec (@LeMeneec) March 22, 2022
Then came the war in Ukraine led by Russia. Will the one who so praised Vladimir Putin’s policy collapse? The chosen strategy is that of effacement, while defending the reception of refugees. “She was very strategic: she felt that the issue was different from the 2015 crisis”underlines political scientist Gilles Ivaldi, a specialist in the far right. “From the start, she understands how society reacts”, abounds Raphaël Llorca. Unlike in 2017, she distances herself from the Russian president with whom she has, she says, “no friendship”.
This is not the only change: to gain credibility, Marine Le Pen is betting everything on purchasing power, even if it means letting Eric Zemmour preempt immigration and identity. “When she started talking about it, everyone laughed at her. She got a kick out of it because this theme was the right one”, welcomes Sébastien Chenu, deputy RN. But behind the reduction in VAT to 5.5% on energy prices or the exemption from income tax for “all young people up to 30 years old”, “his program is not significantly different from the previous ones”, observes Gilles Ivaldi. The ex-lawyer still defends the “national priority” and wants “to give back to the French their country”, for example.
“Beyond the ripolinage, it remains a far-right program”
Raphaël Llorca, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès Foundationat franceinfo
Can the radical nature of the Lepenist proposals make a part of the left react as the second round approaches? “Even if the Republican front is even more weakened than five years ago, it is certain that it will still be in place”analyzes Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos. “I don’t see the voters on the left standing up at all to go save the skin of Emmanuel Macron, whom they hate, in the second round”replies Sébastien Chenu. “His great battle is to win the battle for abstention and demobilization”, decrypts Raphaël Llorca. Sunday April 10, Marine Le Pen called “all those who did not vote for Emmanuel Macron” to the “join”. “The disgruntled will vote for her. It’s a formidable strategy”, anticipates Raphaël Llorca. Emmanuel Macron is warned.