how Marine Le Pen and the RN pulled off a strategic “good move” by voting the Nupes censure motion

A twist at the Palais-Bourbon. Marine Le Pen kept a little surprise for the end of her speech, Monday, October 24, during the examination of the motions of censure tabled by the Nupes and the National Rally, in reaction to the use of 49.3 on the budget . “The group that I have the honor to chair will also vote on the motion of censure presented in terms acceptable to the other side of the hemicycle”, launched the president of the RN group at the Assembly. At the podium, the former presidential candidate castigated “arrogance” of the executive, before ensuring not to fear “threats of dissolution”.

The president of the RN group therefore changed her mind. A week ago, she explained on BFMTV that RN deputies would not vote for the motion of the alliance of left parties. According to information from France Télévisions, the strategic reversal was stopped early Monday afternoon, during the party group meeting. “In one week, what happened was that their motion was tabled, which I read”, then explained Marine Le Pen to journalists, assuring that it was not a 180 degree turn. “The drafting of their motion of censure is not ideological and is based on the same foundations as us.”

For political scientist Bruno Cautrès, this turnaround is a “good shot” strategy on the part of the far-right leader. “It terribly marginalizes the right. It sends a message to hard-right voters, saying: ‘When LR had the chance to bring down the government, they didn’t'”, analyzes the researcher at CNRS and Cevipof. The president of the RN group is not mistaken. “This has the merit of demonstrating that the LR group is closer to the majority than to the opposition”herself deciphered Marine Le Pen in front of journalists.

Thanks to the votes of the RN, added to the votes of the Nupes, the motion of censure on the left collected 239 votes. Far, of course, from the 289 votes (the absolute majority) necessary for its adoption. But under these conditions, the 62 LR deputies could have changed the situation and brought down the government by joining forces with the other opposition parties. What they were careful not to do. “Republicans are the lifeline of the government. That clears things up”analyzes the deputy RN Sébastien Chenu. “We leave them in their union of disorder. We have a backbone, us!”tried to answer the boss of the LR deputies, Olivier Marleix, smelling the political trap. “We are not here to participate in childishness of this kind.”

For the National Rally, this choice to vote for the motion of censure of the left also makes it possible to pursue its strategy of seeking respectability. “We said we wouldn’t forbid ourselves anything. We are open people”assumes Sébastien Chenu. “This shows that we are not sectarian, that our only compass is the interest of France and the French”also insisted Marine Le Pen, not hesitating to denounce in return “sectarianism” of Nupes. “Marine Le Pen also sends a message to the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, those who want to put an end to Emmanuel Macron. If she is still in the second round in five years, she will be able to recall this vote”, says Bruno Cautrès.

For their part, the deputies of the Nupes chose not to vote in return for the motion of the RN, “carrier of a deadly far-right project”, in the words of André Chassaigne, leader of the Communist deputies. But they do not reject the voices from the extreme right. “I think that our motion of censure deserves to be voted widely”said LFI MP Raquel Garrido. “We don’t sort the votes, even if we can clearly see that it’s a political stunt, that it’s not honest. It’s a bad publicity stunt”adds MP LFI Louis Boyard.

Can this unprecedented alliance on a motion of censure announce a change for the rest of the legislature? “If one day we have to vote for a motion of censure, this is the one we will have chosen to table. And we are not forbidden to do so”warned Sunday on Radio J Olivier Marleix.

If such a motion by the LR group were to be tabled, a coalition of oppositions would become a much more concrete threat to the survival of the government. “I hear Madame Le Pen rallying to the Nupes motion of censure, does this mean that an alliance can do without common values, shared convictions and converging ambitions?”, wondered the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, in the hemicycle. For Marine Le Pen, opposition to government policy is now a sufficient common value.


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