The right continues its fragmentation. On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, the right-wing bloc (LR-UDI-DVD) obtained 13.6% of the votes, far from the 21.5% of the votes obtained in the first round in 2017. The right hopes now obtain between 50 and 80 seats in the National Assembly, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24 and parliamentary channels. After the bitter failure of the presidential election, where Valérie Pécresse had not crossed the 5% mark (4.78%), this is a new defeat, even if its magnitude is less strong than expected. “Unlike the RN and LFI, we are force of proposal and want to straighten out our country. I ask the French to trust us because we want to reform our country”reacted Christian Jacob, the president of the party, Sunday evening on France 2.
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Despite the series of bad polls, Les Républicains executives had regained hope thanks to a good field campaign. “The impression we have does not correspond to what is said at the national level”confided a tenor of the party to franceinfo a few days before the first round. “Compared to five years ago, when we felt a real Macron moment on the ground, this is not the case during this campaign. You will see, we will be between 70 and 100 [députés élus]“even predicted Daniel Fasquelle, the treasurer of LR, before the first round.
The mayor of Le Touquet (Pas-de-Calais) seems to have seen a little wide and LR will above all seek to limit the damage now, since the national estimate in seats from Ipsos–Sopra Steria gives them between 50 and 80 seats on Sunday evening. “They can save the furniture, but they will still have far fewer deputies than before, they risk losing half of their staff [une centaine de députés lors de la dernière législature]“analyzes Pascal Perrineau, political scientist and university professor at Sciences Po. As during the presidential election, LR finds himself trapped between the macronists and the far right. “I don’t know if the LR label costs anything but it no longer brings in anything”confided an LR candidate to the Echoes during the campaign.
In an attempt to exist, the party cadres therefore sought to present themselves as the “useful vote”in the words of Christian Jacob, to guarantee a right-wing policy at the head of the state. “We are not here to block things, but to move them forward, to allow the country to reform. Nothing will be done with the President of the Republic and his majority”explained the boss of LR at a press conference. “We must clearly convey the message that, if we want a right-wing policy in the country, we need LR deputies, adds Daniel Fasquelle. We will not oppose systematically, but we will weigh so that the policy of the government leans to the right.
The disaster of a small group in the Assembly, for a time announced, therefore seems to be moving away for LR and its allies, thanks in particular to a solid and historic local anchorage. “They have good coverage of the territory with a few well-established elected officials, political staff who have sometimes demonstrated their quality of management in the territories”Explain Pascal Perrineau.
“To try to save the furniture, they did a very local campaign, not a national campaign.”
Pascal Perrineau, political scientistat franceinfo
“We have seen right-wing voters who voted for Macron come back to us to restore the pendulum a little”, confirms Daniel Fasquelle.
For the moment, the Republicans have succeeded in retaining the majority of their troops. After the departure of some party figures such as former minister Eric Woerth, the president of the Paca region, Renaud Muselier, or the new entrant to the government Damien Abad, some executives feared a massive flight of elected officials to macronie, but it did not occur.
“We have been told : ‘You’ll see’. And finally, the leaks are not that important.” confirms Pascal Perrineau, who does not believe in a post-legislative desertion either. “They will no doubt choose another strategy, with occasional majority support for certain texts, but I do not believe in a massive leak. Especially since the Macronists’ campaign is not good.”
For LR, the reconstruction site will quickly open after this election, on the ruins of the last two presidential elections lost in the first round. Christian Jacob has planned to hand over after the legislative elections and his succession must be decided at a congress. Can Laurent Wauquiez replace him? The qualities of the president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region “are not to be proven, he has demonstrated in his region the solidity which is hisestimated on franceinfo Christian Jacob. But there may be others in our political family as well.”
Xavier Bertrand, six months after his failure in the right-wing primary, is also very active in the current electoral sequence. “The Bertrand brand has not been damaged by the presidential election. He now wants to build something”ensures The Express a close friend of the president of the Hauts-de-France region. For his part, the finalist in the primary opposite Valérie Pécresse, Eric Ciotti, campaigning for the legislative elections in the Alpes-Maritimes, intends to make his voice heard too. “If Wauquiez does not go, he will”ensures the JDD a party official.
But the tenors on the right will perhaps also take into account the request for renewal. In Le Figaroseveral young candidates believe that it is now necessary to rely on the new generation to rebuild the party. “We need new faces, because the image of the right is that of an old generation”entrusts a candidate to the daily newspaper.