“When the level of the threat increases so much, Russia has the right to adopt the necessary measures.” Vladimir Putin decided on Monday February 21 to recognize the independence of the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine and immediately signed “friendship and mutual aid” agreements with the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk. This decision paves the way for the entry of Russian forces into these regions and a war with Ukraine. Faced with this decision, many residents of Donbass fearing the imminent arrival of the Russian army fled their homes.
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Does Vladimir Putin have the support of the Russians in this conflict? It is impossible to know the impact of his strategy on public opinion. “We see devastated messages on social networksreports the correspondent of Le Monde in Moscow, Benoît Vitkine, but it is difficult to know the feeling of the majority of the population.” This one is “white-hot for years but often skeptical and very indifferent politically”he continues. “Russian opinion tends to line up behind the version of power, which presents the country as eternally attacked.”
Sylvain Tronchet, correspondent of Radio France in Moscow also observes it. “There are very few opinion polls in this country and the vox pops I did before the recent events – which only have the value of vox pops – showed that Russians were relatively indifferent to the Vladimir Putin’s foreign policyexplains the journalist.
On this topic, the most recent studies by the Levada Center, an independent Russian sociological research and polling NGO, were conducted in January. The Kremlin had not officially carried out its threats. One of them (in English) ranks the most significant events of the month of January according to the Russian population. Demonstrations in Kazakhstan come first (22%), just ahead of the situation in Ukraine, cited at 21%. According to another study on the fears of the inhabitants, published on January 14, Russians are afraid of “the illness of relatives, children” (82%), of a “world war” (56%) and of ” abuse of power by the authorities” (53%).
“The Russians are used to this situation, because the war has been going on for eight years in the Donbass”recalls Vera Ageeva, associate professor at the University of Economic Studies (HSE) in Saint Petersburg, Russia. “According to the testimonies reported by the Russian media, you can see that the inhabitants are worried, that they do not want war, that they do not want their boys to be sent to the army, but there is no no fear of a major conflict at this stage”, says the researcher. On the other hand, the population seems favorable to the idea of helping the inhabitants of Donbass.
“The Russians accept the idea of helping refugees from Donbass. They are used to it. Since 2014, inhabitants of this region have been settling in Russia.”
Vera Ageeva, associate professor at the HSE in St. Petersburgat franceinfo
According to a poll published Monday by the daily Kommersant (in Russian)78% of Russians support the reception of refugees from Donbass.
The Russian population fears above all the economic consequences of a conflict in Ukraine. Especially since the country is already going through an economic crisis, which Western sanctions risk aggravating. “The Russians are mainly concerned about their purchasing power, inflation. However, following Vladimir Putin’s announcements, the price of the ruble suffered a sharp drop, raising fears of an increase in the price of imported products”explains journalist Sylvain Tronchet.
“Russians’ incomes have fallen in recent years, Covid-19 has been a trying time and the prospect of war does not excite anyone”continues Anna Colin Lebedev, lecturer in Nanterre and specialist in the former USSR. “The ‘average’ Russian will have sympathy and compassion for Ukraine, but its economic and social situation will prevail.”
A few rare nationalist voices say they are ready to support the president 100% in an open war with Ukraine, “but they are not that influential, and do not represent a majority public opinion”, shade Vera Ageeva. Above all, nationalist sentiment in Russia is much less strong than in 2014. “There are still people who believe the rhetoric of the state which consists in saying that Russia is helping its ‘Russian brothers’ in Ukraine, that there is a ‘genocide’ [allégation selon laquelle l’Ukraine massacre des populations russes dans le Donbass] but however powerful the propaganda, the general feeling is rather indifference”believes Sylvain Tronchet.
For researcher Vera Ageeva, the Russians do not support armed intervention in this conflict, but their voice is difficult to hear. The opposition does not exist in Parliament and human rights defenders have been silenced. At the end of January, some 150 artists and intellectuals signed an open letter against the war, but no demonstration has so far been listed.
“There will be no dispute, it’s far too risky in Russia”recalls the researcher, who nevertheless believes that the population remains sensitive to the argument of the return of a nation “great and mighty” advanced by the Kremlin. “Russia has not been an empire since 1991 and Moscow is exploiting the feeling of humiliation. The Russian population will therefore always tend to support, in the idea, actions that can make the country ‘great’ again”she believes.