How is the Russian space sector doing before sending a Soyuz spacecraft to the ISS?

Delay in ignition. Russia must attempt to launch, on Saturday March 23, after a two-day postponement, a Soyuz spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS). The crew of the MS-25, which is to take off from the Baikonur base in Kazakhstan, has three members: American astronaut Tracy C. Dyson, experienced Russian cosmonaut Oleg Novitsky and the first Belarusian cosmonaut Marina Vassilevskaya.

While Russia intends to stop its collaboration within the ISS after 2025, and it suffered a failure during a moon landing attempt in August 2023, franceinfo takes stock of the Russian space sector.

He is aging

In the 20th century, the Soviet Union was at the forefront of space conquest with the United States. But over the decades, the Russian space sector has slowed its development. Although its technology is reliable, it is aging and is not renewed. “The backbone of the space sector is based on elements developed in the 1960s. It’s very old technology.”, notes Paul Wohrer, specialist in space issues at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). For him, Russia is now “a space power in decline”.

The Roscosmos space agency is “underfunded”noted geographer Isabelle Sourbès-Verger on franceinfo in August 2023. Consequence: Russia struggles to innovate.

“Russia sent the first satellite in 1957 and the first man in space in 1961, but it cannot create new projects.”

Paul Wohrer, specialist in space issues

at franceinfo

On the other hand, competition has strengthened. Europe asserted itself then, more recently, other countries such as China and India have developed their space sector. Not to mention the excitement of private players, the rise of SpaceX, and a whole pool of start-ups, commonly called the “New Space” environment.

It is declining

However, Russia does not intend to let itself be overwhelmed. It has embarked on the new race towards the Moon while missions are multiplying, such as Artemis, led by NASA, which plans to permanently install a base at the South Pole of our natural satellite.

Except that the Luna-25 program ended in failure: in August, the Russian probe crashed on the Moon. A setback all the more symbolic since China and India succeeded in this particularly complicated task. “Even in terms of interplanetary exploration, where it was a pioneer, Russia is no longer arriving” to carry out major projects, notes Paul Wohrer.

Anticipating the end of the ISS planned for 2030, Moscow intends to launch a new Russian space station, presented as a priority for Roscosmos. Vladimir Putin said in October that the first segment of this station should be put into orbit in 2027. This deadline must be taken with caution, as delays are commonplace for Russia. Moscow and Beijing also announced the construction of a space station in 2021 “on the surface or in orbit” from the moon. But “China increasingly rarely mentions its Russian partner and the program seems to be led mainly by China”underlines Paul Wohrer.

Even on elements with robust reliability, such as its Soyuz launchers which would allow it to nourish its great ambitions, Russia finds itself in difficulty. Several incidents have been noted in recent years: a launch in 2018 ended in failure, which is extremely rare. Another Soyuz carrying a robot failed to dock with the ISS in 2019. More recently, in 2023, significant coolant leaks were observed on a spacecraft, forcing Washington and Moscow to develop a emergency plan to recover two Russians and an American stranded on the ISS. “We are seeing a significant loss of quality and quality control”according to Paul Wohrer.

He is corrupt

More seriously, the Russian space sector is “extremely corrupt, at all levels”, assures Paul Wohrer. In December 2023, the deputy director of the Russian space agency was accused of corruption and placed in detention. This manager and two other people were accused of “large-scale fraud” for an amount of 435 million rubles, or 4.3 million euros. They are awaiting their judgment.

“This massive corruption poses major problems: shooting ranges are difficult to build.”

Paul Wohrer, specialist in space issues

at franceinfo

In 2018, four managers of a company involved in the construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome (Russia) were sentenced to sentences ranging from four and a half to eight years in prison for embezzlement estimated at 1.3 billion rubles (17 .8 million euros at the rate at the time). The site was delivered several months late than the initial plan, becoming the symbol of some of the problems in the Russian space sector. “I expect a more responsible attitude from you”declared Vladimir Putin the following year during a meeting with sector officials, following a visit to the cosmodrome.