The rupture is consummated. Gas, oil, then electricity: Lithuania has stopped all energy imports from Russia. The Minister of Energy hailed “an important step on the road to energy independence”as well as a “expression of solidarity with Ukraine”, announcing the news on Friday, May 20. If the weaning of Vilnius was accelerated by the war in Ukraine, it was prepared as early as the 1990s. How did the small Baltic state manage to free itself from its main supplier of gas, oil and electricity ?
While the European Union has been talking for several months about a possible embargo on Russian oil without succeeding in establishing it, Lithuania could serve as a model. Can France in passing learn lessons from this?
By building new infrastructure
After declaring its independence in 1990, Lithuania remained dependent on energy from the former USSR. Moscow immediately imposed a heavy embargo on the young Baltic republic by interrupting its oil deliveries for three months. “From the outset, the questions of energy, sovereignty and security were therefore linked”, says Trine Villumsen Berling, researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, specialist in energy security in the Baltic region. A few years later, in 1994, 90% of the oil consumed in Lithuania came from Russia, according to the World Bank*, like all of its gas, until 2013, according to the International Energy Agency*.
Lithuania quickly understood the need to find other suppliers. However, it was exclusively connected to other members of the former USSR: Russia, Belarus and its Baltic neighbors. He had to connect with other partners. Building a new refinery, completed in 1999, running electric cables to Sweden and extending its network of gas pipelines (like the one with Poland, which came into operation at the beginning of May)… These projects, in addition to being expensive, risked irritating Russia, which explains the long delays in implementation, says the Washington Post*. The connection to Sweden was first mentioned in 2004, the call for tenders launched in 2009 and the result inaugurated at the end of 2015. But growing pressure from Russia under Vladimir Putin, who notably suspended gas deliveries to Georgia and Ukraine in 2006 convinced Lithuania to continue on its road to energy independence.
The centerpiece of this strategy floats today in the port of Klaipeda. The well named independence, a vessel that entered into service in 2014, serves as a terminal for processing liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported by sea. Thanks to it, Lithuania can buy LNG anywhere in the world without being limited by the route of a gas pipeline. It can even sell gas to the other Baltic countries as the boat’s capacities are so great.
And France? France is already connected to the European electricity grid and has four LNG land terminals (Dunkirk, Montoir-de-Bretagne, Fos-Cavaou and Fos-Tonkin). If the whole of Europe wants to close the tap on Russian gas transported by pipeline, it will have to get its supplies from the ocean in the form of LNG, and France will be in the front line to process it: current capacities may therefore not be sufficient. . That’s why it could lease a floating LNG station in the summer of 2022, according to The echoes. If she wants to rent one or have others built, she will have to wait in line or pay a high price. the FinancialTimes* reminds that there are very few boats of this type available, and that because of the many orders, the new models may not leave the shipyards before 2027.
Finding new suppliers
These new infrastructures have enabled Lithuania to turn over the years to other suppliers. In 2013, Vilnius still imported all of its gas from Russia. Since then, thanks toindependence, the country consumes gas from the United States and Norway, according to the Energy Monitor website*. The same goes for its oil, which still came to more than 70% from Russia in 2019: the country’s only refinery reached an agreement in March with the oil company Saudi Aramco to compensate for the Russian loss, reports the BBC *. As for its electricity, the share coming from Russia has gradually decreased in favor of Sweden.
And France? The constraints are different. France does not depend on Russian electricity since it is a “net exporter” (it exports more than it imports), according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition. With only 17% Russian gas in the pipes, “France’s dependence on Russia is much less than that of other European countries”, explains Morgan Crenes, research and innovation manager at data provider Enerdata. He adds that“we can increase gas supplies a little from Norway or Algeria”. Finally, Russian oil represents 10 to 12% of French crude oil imports and 20 to 25% of diesel imports, according to the president of Ufip to AFP, but there will be no “major difficulty” in the event of an embargo. Morgan Crenes explains that“It will be easier to replace Russian oil than gas, because it is easier to transport and the market is less concentrated”.
It is nevertheless easier to find spare stocks for a country of 2.8 million inhabitants like Lithuania than for France. However, many States are scrambling to access other sources of the precious LNG, “on which the main part of the diversification will have to be based” According to Morgan Crenes, while producers like the United States or Qatar will take time to increase their capacities. “It will be possible to find some far enough away, like in Asia or Australia”explains Jacques Percebois, emeritus professor of economics at the University of Montpellier. “But you will have to pay.”
By replacing gas with biomass
Blocking Russian gas without an alternative would have thrown a chill in Lithuania: 62% of the country’s heat production went through Russian natural gas in 2010. The Lithuanians found the solution at home. Today, wood (largely produced locally) provides almost 75% of the heat consumed in the country, according to the IEA*. This shift towards biomass has been encouraged by favorable taxation, rising hydrocarbon prices and existing infrastructure. The majority of households are connected to heating networks, underground pipe systems that can connect entire agglomerations to one or more common boiler rooms.
And France? In 2018, 27% of the energy used for residential heating came from wood, compared to 39% from gas, notes a report by the firm Carbone 4. The potential exists: French forests are naturally renewed twice as fast as we would collects them, according to Ademe. France could therefore use many more.
However, “if we develop the energy use of biomass, this could come into conflict with other land uses such as agriculture”, warns Jacques Percebois. Especially since the heating networks at the heart of the Lithuanian strategy are very little present in France. They would represent around 5% of residential heating demand in 2018, again according to Carbone 4. “It has never been very popular in France”says Jacques Percebois, “because we preferred to use this heat to produce electricity, as we do in nuclear power plants.”
By achieving significant energy savings
To depend less on foreign energy, the most effective way is still to consume less of it. Since its independence, Lithuania embarked on major energy renovation programs, encouraged by its neighbours. “Denmark has helped a lot in promoting energy efficiency measures like insulating homes, installing thermostats and setting up district heating systems”recalls Trine Villumsen Berling.
And France? By focusing on energy renovation, France could kill two birds with one stone: reduce its consumption of energy imported from Russia and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. “It would not be consistent to build new gas infrastructure as part of the low-carbon transition”emphasizes Anna Creti, professor of economics at Paris-Dauphine University.
The researcher notes, however, that France accuses “considerable delay” in this domain. Investments in energy renovations now amount to around 15 billion euros per year, whereas it would take almost three times as much, according to a report by the think tank I4CE quoted by the Institute for Sustainable Development and Relations international (Iddri). France was also given formal notice by the European Commission for incomplete transposition of a European directive on energy efficiency, on May 19.
*Links followed by an asterisk refer to content in English.