For several months, the former Prime Minister has been holding numerous meetings, making trips to the field and laying the foundations of a political project. With the release of a new book and the start of his Horizons party, he continues to place his pawns.
On the wall of his office, Edouard Philippe hung a map of France with a multitude of pins to symbolize the places he has visited since 2017: in red as Prime Minister, in blue as leader of the Horizons party, in white as an author to promote his books and in green for the places where he lived for more than two months. A battle plan for the presidential election? “He wants to be sure to know France like the back of his hand, to breathe every corner of the country”explains Horizons MP Frédéric Valletoux.
Places that saythe title of his latest book, in bookstores Wednesday September 13, was not chosen at random. “A little bit of ourselves is made up of all the places that made us”, he wrote, according to his publisher JC Lattès. Attached to his territorial roots, the mayor of Le Havre always keeps a lucky charm in the shape of an anchor with him, he confides in the show “Sept à quatre” on TF1: “When you want to land, you drop anchor. When you want to leave, you raise anchor.”
“The anchor is the symbol of the one who controls his destiny.”
The former Prime Minister navigates through his numerous trips in what he sometimes calls “France sub-prefectures”whether during the legislative elections, more recently for the senatorial elections or as party leader, in what looks like a permanent campaign. “Except that in the countryside, there are many journalists. There, he does more in-depth work, he weaves his web, his network of elected officials, he meets people from the community economic”specifies those around him.
A strategy of scarcity
If he has returned to the microphones in recent days to promote his new book, he is mainly focusing on a rare speaking strategy. “He doesn’t spend his time on set commenting on Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s little sentences, and that’s a virtue”believes Frédéric Valletoux. “He only speaks when he has something to say. So, when he speaks, we listen to himsays a former advisor who remains close. Qhen you box, if you spend your time throwing punches, you get tired. It’s better to hit well-felt blows that have impact.”
“Talking a lot to say little devalues politics.”
A former advisor to Edouard Philippeat franceinfo
The mayor of Le Havre most often stays far from the political ring, even if he still puts on the gloves from time to time. In the middle of the debate on pension reform, last October, he pleaded for a postponement of the retirement age “at 65, 66 or 67 years old”. More recently, in an interview given to The Express on the theme of immigration, he formulated several shocking proposals, such as calling into question the 1968 agreement with Algeria – a text which organizes the entry of Algerians into France. “He attacks the unsaid things that exist in our country, and he does neither in the big red that stains, nor in lukewarm water”believes Alexandre Vincendet, one of the rare LR deputies to openly support the former Prime Minister.
Questions about his health
He also does not avoid questions related to his physical changes caused by two autoimmune diseases: vitiligo, which causes depigmentation of the skin, and alopecia, a benign disease which results in hair loss and hairs. “I am in good shape”he evacuated for the first time in February on BFMTV, before being forced to repeat it in each interview. “It is not serious in any way, it is not contagious, nor painful. (…) My health is excellent”he insists on TF1, before inviting skeptics to come and challenge him in boxing.
“He has completely embraced his transformation. Suddenly, it’s no longer a subject at all.”
Alexandre Vincendet, Republican deputyat franceinfo
In the majority, some express a slight doubt. “In the markets, I still meet people who are reluctant to vote for him because of that”says a Renaissance deputy. “Yes, I was able to see the surprise of certain people who turn around and ask themselves: ‘But, is it Edouard Philippe?’ But he still has the same energy, the same humor, the spark in his eyesreassures former Secretary of State Bérangère Abba, Secretary General of Horizons. I am convinced that, in a few months, we will have ironed out the issue and it will be resolved.”
Caution regarding polls
Edouard Philippe assures that he has lost none of his power of seduction and the back-to-school polls seem to prove him right. According to a recent OpinionWay survey for The Parisian, he is in the lead with 33% of those surveyed who would be tempted to vote for him in 2027. Far ahead of Bruno Le Maire (19%), Gérald Darmanin (17%) and even Marine Le Pen (30%). But Edouard Philippe plays it safe. Every time those close to him talk about the polls, he reminds them that in 2016 he was alongside Alain Juppé, then the big favorite in the right-wing primary, lost to François Fillon.
“Measuring someone’s popularity on the basis of an election that will take place in four years and where we don’t know the candidates is absurd.”warns Horizons MP Loïc Kervran. “His popularity is quite superficial, it took off during Covid and has not changed since, but it is not based on a very detailed knowledge of his personality”estimates a close friend of Laurent Wauquiez, the LR president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, who has not given up on his presidential ambitions.
“When all this is refined, when it re-enters the atmosphere, it will come back down.”
A relative of Laurent Wauquiezat franceinfo
The fact remains that for some Republicans, he appears to be the candidate capable of bringing together the right and center clans. And tongues loosen. The President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, believes that Edouard Philippe is doing “Of course” part of his political family. “I always said that the beam continues to work at LR. And if I can help by jumping on the beam, I will gladly do it”confides MP LR Alexandre Vincendet.
A bet about to be successful
While waiting for other support, Edouard Philippe relies on his Horizons party, created in the fall of 2021, a year after his exit from Matignon. After two years of structuring, the movement is starting to look like a launching pad. “It has become a serious business, with 20,000 members, nearly 1,000 local committees, around 700 mayors… We have a network, the party is taking root”, welcomes Frédéric Valletoux. The party, which is organizing its political return from September 14 to 16, also serves as a ideas box for the deputies of the Horizons group and for a possible presidential program. “We have 250 experts in 25 working groups and an ‘ideas’ center which organizes meetings with personalities”details a framework.
“In 18 months, we have a greater force in the landscape than the MoDem, and I’m not even talking about Renaissance.”
A Horizons MPat franceinfo
Edouard Philippe therefore organizes himself carefully. “The vocation of a political party is not simply to say: ‘Hey, there you go, I have a good idea’… It is to conquer power democratically”he admits on TF1. “I feel determined and organized”confides a relative. “I have the impression of seeing Chirac in 1993, in the way he prepared, in his determination”, adds Alexandre Vincendet. But the calendar differs. There are almost four years left before the next presidential election. “He made a bet that seemed daring, because he started very early. But we must recognize that for the moment it is working. He is implementing the idearecognizes a Renaissance strategist. Its only pitfall is not so much the competition, but it is to last over time.”
The inheritance trap
“Four years is a very long time. We are in a long-distance race which will end in a sprint”recognizes those around him. “Difficult to predict a date for a candidacy, without knowing the circumstances and the evolution of the political context”, notes a Horizons executive. Some are talking about the start of the 2024 school year, after the Olympic Games; others are banking on 2025 instead. “I don’t think there will be a moment to bring out the trumpets for an announcement. There is evidence that is becoming evident, through his words, his appearances in the media and his trips on the ground”believes Bérangère Abba.
And in this time, “he must answer this question: at what point should he become freer and less loyal? How can we avoid the trap of appearing like Macron’s heir?” asks a relative to France Télévisions. On the Republican side, advisors are already working on the response. “When he was at Matignon, how many immigrants returned to France? Who closed Fessenheim? Who did the 80 km/h? He has a balance sheet and we are going to put the label of the heir of the 10 years of macronism. He will not be able to embody alternation”anticipates someone close to Laurent Wauquiez.
“At some point, he will want to distance himself from Macron, and that could leave its mark on the majority.”
A relative of Laurent Wauquiezat franceinfo
For the moment, the former tenant of Matignon remains with his formula “loyal but free”. Emmanuel Macron recently described it as“friend” able to “take over”, but relations remain tense. Asked on TF1 to know if he also considered the head of state as a “friend”Edouard Philippe keeps his distance: “When you have a Prime Minister and a President of the Republic, their relations are not placed on the register of friendship.”
Should we move away from Macronism? “People ask me on the markets what the differences are between Edouard and Macron. I don’t have clear answers today, that’s a problem”recognizes a Horizons mayor. “There will be an inventory right over successive five-year terms. We have taken our part in it, but we will also have our differences”warns Loïc Kervran. “The closer we get to the end of the five-year term, the less Edward will appear as the heir, predicts a close one. It will also depend on his ability to wear different things.”