how could the conflict end?

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But on the ground, everything indicates that the operations will continue. The Ukrainian army continues its reconquest, and the Russian army its strikes. On Sunday, Moscow accused kyiv of preparing to use a “dirty bomb”remarks that the White House sees as a possible “pretext for an escalation”.

How can this still lively conflict one day come to an end? As the situation seems increasingly inextricable, franceinfo interviewed specialists to understand how wars end, explore possible scenarios in Ukraine and their probability of materializing.

Scenario 1: Russia achieves its goals

To know the probability of a Russian victory, it is still necessary to know what are the war objectives of Vladimir Putin. “We know what he wanted to do from the start, assures political science researcher Julien Théron. Namely to bring about regime change in kyiv, to reinstall a government aligned with the interests of the Kremlin.” This scenario collapsed from the first days of the war, when the Russian army failed to take the capital. Since the initial failure, the course followed by the Russian president is “completely blurry”observes the co-author, with Isabelle Mandraud, of Putin, The Strategy from Disorder to War (ed. Tallandier, August 2022). “He first targeted the big cities. Then we thought he wanted to take all of Ukraine. Then he announced that Russia was concentrating on Donbass.”

But if no one really knows what Vladimir Putin wants anymore, the Russian president has clearly not given up. “A war ends when we change the expectations of the actors”especially when the reality on the ground “makes them realize that they don’t have the means to achieve their goals”, explains Olivier Schmitt, researcher at the University of Southern Denmark. In this case, everything shows that Vladimir Putin is not convinced of being doomed to failure in Ukraine: “If he decided on mobilization and strategic strikes on the big cities, it’s because he thinks he still has the means to win.”

For this specialist in military strategy, the Kremlin still hopes that Westerners, destabilized by the energy crisis, will stop supporting Ukraine and push kyiv to capitulate. But even in the event of a reversal of the military situation, it is difficult to imagine the Ukrainians ceasing to fight. Above all, given the momentum of recent months, “the probability of a Russian victory is low”, recalls Olivier Schmitt. He emphasizes in particular the “exhaustion differential” between Ukrainian troops and the Russian army, “whose many officers have been killed, and who must send conscripts in place of professional troops”.

Scenario 2: Ukraine defeats the Russian army

In view of the last months of conflict, a military victory for Ukraine “becomes in the realm of the feasiblebelieves Olivier Schmitt. They have suffered many losses, but manage to train their soldiers, maintain an experienced leadership, and are provided with equipment. The military momentum is in their favour.”

The coming winter will be decisive, believes sociologist Anna Colin Lebedev, a specialist in Russian and Ukrainian societies. “We will then see what the economic and humanitarian situation of the Ukrainians will be, our own determination to support them despite the consequences on our purchasing power, and how this will affect the front.” Despite the difficult climatic conditions, the Ukrainians have no intention of pausing in their counter-offensive, assured on October 12 the Secretary of Defense of the United States, Lloyd J. Austin III, calling on Western countries to send them equipment adapted to the cold, reports the New York Times (in English).

It remains to know the extent of the territories that kyiv intends to reconquer. “Are we talking about the effective borders on February 23, 2022 [à la veille de l’offensive russe] or those of 2013 [avant l’annexion de la Crimée et l’occupation d’une partie des régions de Donetsk et de Louhansk] ? The question can become very sensitive”, underlines Anna Colin Lebedev. And create dissension between Ukraine and some of its allies. Because the other unknown, in the scenario of a Ukrainian victory, “this is how Putin will react”, recalls Olivier Schmitt. For the researcher, Vladimir Putin “has invested too much in this conflict to give in. In highly militarized regimes like his, the survival of leaders depends on the performance of their army, and they tend to double down rather than give up”. However, a war cannot end if one of the two belligerents continues to fight.

Scenario 3: kyiv and Moscow reach a peace agreement

On Sunday in Rome, Emmanuel Macron reiterated his belief that this war will end with negotiations: “At some point, depending on the evolution of things and when the Ukrainian people and their leaders have decided, in the terms they have decided, peace will be built with the other, who is the enemy of ‘today, around a table’. A speech which he did not give up despite criticism from Volodymyr Zelensky on France’s desire to maintain dialogue with Vladimir Putin. Would the end of this war necessarily go through an agreement between kyiv and Moscow? Olivier Schmitt lists three determining variables: the fact that at least one of the belligerents changes objective; that the internal politics of the countries involved are favorable to the end of the war; and that there is a “minimum degree of confidence” mutual respect for a peace agreement.

On the Russian side, none of these factors have been acquired to date. If Russia presents itself as open to mediation with Ukraine, under the aegis of Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, its speech shows no concessions. And Vladimir Putin continues to show confidence in his ability to win against the Ukrainian army. The Russian political context seems to encourage him in what Julien Théron describes as “flight forward”. For the politician, “accepting to negotiate the withdrawal of Russian troops would be contrary to the mythology of Putinism, which is based on the image of an ultrapower”. The Russian president needs this image “so that no one can dispute his place”.

The conditions for an agreement are not met in Ukraine either. “The people are on edge. If Zelensky announces that he will negotiate with Russia, a new government will replace him immediately”predicts Olivier Schmitt. “It’s the Ukrainian people who are leading the war, who are joining the army, but also who are ensuring the continuity of the state, repairing the electricity grid… Their support is central”, insists Anna Colin Lebedev. Volodymyr Zelensky, appreciated for his ability to unite with his people, “no room for error” in his speech. He continues to virulently refuse any proposal for negotiations as long as Vladimir Putin is presiding over Russia.

The mutual trust necessary for an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow does not exist either. “The Russians have a history of violating their entire commitments. Ukraine has no reason to believe them”, slice Olivier Schmitt. The people of Ukraine “increasingly interprets this war as part of an existential conflict with Russia”, explains Anna Colin-Lebedev. For public opinion, “a ceasefire signed now would be the most frightening assumption: it would give Russia time to strengthen and attack again”.

Scenario 4: Putin is overthrown

In Ukraine, nothing seems to threaten the popularity of Volodymyr Zelensky as long as he continues the fight against the invader. In Russia, by contrast, military failure and economic hardship may weaken Vladimir Putin’s foundations of power. “Russians are historically used to tough leaders, but they’ve also taken a liking to consumerism and travel”emphasizes Julien Théron. “A lot of people would be ready for change”analyzes Anna Colin-Lebedev, who observes “an increase in the number of dissatisfied people” in the local administrations, on the front line to apply the general mobilization wanted by Putin and to suffer the anger of the Russians on a daily basis. But the Kremlin still has the means to ensure repression. “The spark probably won’t come from the street”judges the sociologist.

For the time being, there is no sign either of a palace revolution, which would come from relatives of the Russian head of state. But “the more Russian soldiers lose, the more it becomes possible”, believes Olivier Schmitt. However, “it is not unimaginable that Putin will be replaced, but that the regime will not fall”, warns Julien Théron. A part of the Russian elites has long shared its hate speech of the West. The increasingly audible criticism in Russia does not come from opponents of the invasion of Ukraine, but from supporters of a hardening. “The alternative to Vladimir Putin would not necessarily be better”concludes Olivier Schmitt.

Scenario 5: The conflict turns into a global nuclear war

To make the allies of Ukraine doubt, Vladimir Putin lets the threat of a recourse to nuclear weapons hover. He would consider it, he said, if there was a threat to “territorial integrity” from his country. Ukraine has no intention of setting foot in Russia, but it does not recognize the annexation of Crimea in 2014 or that, at the end of September, of four regions of the country, where Ukrainian soldiers are leading a counter-offensive.

Can Vladimir Putin consider this an attack on Russian territory, and cross that red line? The question is debated among specialists. “I think the probability is low, less than 10%, but it increases a little” because of the difficulties of the Russian army, believes Olivier Schmitt. “He’s a dictator, who may consider it his least bad option.” The United States claims to have observed no sign of an imminent nuclear strike. But the fact that they publicly warned Moscow of the consequences of a nuclear strike shows “that they think it’s a possibility”says the researcher.

The scenario envisaged is that of a tactical strike, that is to say the use of a nuclear weapon of lesser power (which would however remain devastating). It would not end the conflict: impossible to destroy the Ukrainian army, which is fighting on fronts stretching over several thousand kilometers, in a single localized strike. In contrast, the Western response would be “so powerful that the Russian army will be[it] annihilated”has already warned the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.

Could a nuclear strike in Ukraine then hasten a Russian military defeat? Or lead kyiv and its allies to capitulate for fear of an escalation? Or accelerate a political change in Russia, by dissatisfying the allies of Moscow or the population? “I think we would change the world”, analyzes Olivier Schmitt. Ukraine’s Western allies would retaliate, not necessarily nuclear – Emmanuel Macron ruled this out on October 12 – but with conventional strikes. “Russia would then have a choice: stop there or move on to strategic nuclear strikes against major cities”, summarizes the researcher. At the time of the Cold War, specialists were already aware “that if a conflict becomes nuclear, it is very unlikely to remain limited”.