how can we estimate the real number of victims in Gaza?

Since October 7 and the Hamas attack, the Israeli army has relentlessly bombarded the Gaza Strip, causing tens of thousands of deaths. But how do you know exactly how much? Can we trust the figures communicated by Hamas? Franceinfo confronted several sources who are trying to count the victims of the conflict.

How many people have been killed in the Gaza Strip since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which left 1,200 dead, including 37 children and 7,500 injured (source Unicef) on the Israeli side, and triggered the Israeli response? Hebrew state? According to Hamas, the number of victims (dead and injured) is close to 150,000. Can we trust these figures?

According to the latest official figures, communicated on Saturday October 5 by the Ministry of Health controlled by the Islamist organization Hamas, there are nearly 42,000 deaths in Gaza, including 11,000 minors, and 100,000 injured. And the toll is growing day by day. On Sunday, according to Gaza’s civil defense, an Israeli strike on a mosque housing war-displaced people in Deir el-Balah left at least 21 dead. The organization responsible for first aid also counts at least 10,000 missing. These are the victims still buried under the rubble of buildings destroyed by airstrikes which it was unable to reach due to a lack of heavy lifting equipment.

These “official” figures, relayed by international press agencies and Franceinfo in particular, are sometimes called into question. However, according to the General Secretariat of the United Nations, during the previous wars in Gaza, between 2009 and 2021, “the reports communicated by the local health authorities and those of the United Nations turned out to be almost identical”.

These figures are credible and even very certainly below reality, states Guillaume Ancel in particular. The former French air force officer, who “bombed itself” And “been bombed”, prefers to do his own calculations. “I prefer to do what has been my job, a ‘bomb damage assessment’, that is to say an assessment of the damage due to the bombings”. He explains “analyze the bombings that were carried out, the frequency, the type of ammunition”. According to the former officer, “we arrive rather at a figure of 100 000 dead, to which must be added 3.5 times more injured, between 300,000 and 400 000″. He assures that the official figure is therefore “far out of date”.

Before the start of the conflict, Hamas militiamen were estimated at 30,000. According to figures from Guillaume Ancel, more than 90% of the victims of these bombings are therefore collateral damage, civilians who had no connection with Hamas. . “This is a loss rate which, in terms of international law, constitutes a war crime”he accuses.

Researchers have also looked into this question. They sent a letter published in the most prestigious medical journal in the world: The Lancet. These three researchers counted the deaths killed directly in Israeli bombings but also all past and future indirect deaths, linked to lack of care or malnutrition. “By applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths for every one direct death”they arrive at a death toll of 186,000.

The figure is consistent, explains Jean-François Corty, president of the Médecins du Monde association. “If we add up the people left under the rubble, the current and future deaths linked to the inability to be treated for pathologies which decompensate, if we also add up a perspective of all the mortalities linked to ( at least) 100,000 injured, of which 20,000 would require treatment outside Gaza for extremely complex pathologies. From a medium-term perspective, the figure of 186,000 deaths is entirely credible. he concludes.

Counting the number of deaths is obviously very complex. Their number is considerable. For the various speakers, these figures make it possible to characterize the current situation in Gaza in particular with a view to a judgment by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against whom the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court requested arrest warrants in May for war crimes and crimes against humanity. His Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is also being prosecuted as well as several leaders of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas on the same charges.