For more than a month, the massive military movements of Russia towards the border of Ukraine, documented by many amateur videos, worried the east of Europe. Kiev warns of an invasion, while the United States and the European Union reaffirm their attachment to its sovereignty. The current crisis is, moreover, once again on the program of the European Council summit, which is being held in Brussels on Thursday 16 and Friday 17 December. What responses can they provide to defuse the situation?
On the diplomatic front: the United States in action
It is still possible to solve “through diplomacy” this rise in tensions between Moscow and Kiev, said the American official Karen Donfried, at the G7 in Liverpool, on December 11. Since the start of the Donbass War in 2014, this negotiation has mainly gone through discussions between the leaders of four countries (Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France), nicknamed the “Normandy format”, from the name of a quadripartite meeting that took place. at the start of the conflict.
In the current crisis, it has mainly taken the form of direct and tense exchanges between the United States and Russia, such as the virtual summit between Joe Biden and Vladimir Poutin, on December 7. The Russian President thus called on the United States and NATO to negotiate “immediate”, in a statement released by the Kremlin and dated December 14. The “Normandy format” is not on the agenda and Vladimir Poutine continues to ignore calls for dialogue from Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky.
“One of the hypotheses is that Russia creates this escalation to provoke a direct dialogue with the Americans and recover the status of an international power”, explains Edouard Simon, research director at Ifri, interviewed by franceinfo. It must be said that Vladimir Putin’s main request – a guarantee that Ukraine cannot join NATO in the future – has already been refused by the alliance. “A community which carries democratic values could not withdraw its sovereignty from Ukraine by preventing it from applying for membership“, recalls Edouard Simon.
In this context, Emmanuel Macron’s calls to “initiate work and a process of appeasement” with Moscow and “re-engage [Vladimir Poutine] in coordination formats with us “, have for the moment remained a dead letter. Russia’s bellicose rhetoric, which threatens to deploy nuclear missiles in Europe, can be interpreted as stalling negotiations. Corn “some analyzes explain that Russia’s objective is to test NATO’s sensitivity threshold and push it as far as possible, to recover geopolitical leeway”, emphasizes the researcher. Moscow’s escalating rhetoric could be used to return to the negotiating table in a more advantageous position.
On the economic front: “never seen before” sanctions?
NATO follows a similar logic, but uses another form of threat: that of the wallet. It had already been implemented in 2014 during the invasion of Crimea, but “the sanctions taken so far have not had much effect”, recalls Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher specialized on Ukraine for the think tank CapEurope, interviewed by franceinfo. This time, Europe evokes “a solid strengthening and extension of existing sanctions regimes”, and the United States announces economic sanctions “like Russia has never seen” in the event of an attack. What forms could they take?
Blocking the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline is the main track. “In the event of further escalation, this pipeline could not come into service”German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on December 12. This project is to send Russian gas to Germany bypassing Ukraine but has drawn the wrath of Washington, which fears that Russia will control Europe’s energy supply. “Blocking it would be a major blow against the interests of Russia and would represent a big loss for it, since the work is already almost finished”, Edouard Simon point.
However, this path can turn out to be a double-edged sword, in particular for Europe which is already going through a major energy crisis.
“Russia will have no problem finding other buyers for its gas. Those who will pay for the effects of such a sanction will probably be the Europeans.”
Edouard Simon, Research Director at Ifrito franceinfo
There remains the nuclear option. “The United States is implicitly waving the threat of an exclusion from the Swift”, the system through which passes a large part of the large international payments, decrypts Christine Dugoin-Clément. “It would be to exclude Russia from the international monetary system and bring it almost on par with Iran.” Cutting Russia off payment systems, however, would have cascading effects. “It would embarrass the EU, given the amount of energy it buys from Russia”, recalls the researcher.
On the military level: avoid escalation
Faced with the movements of Russian troops, the response of the United States and Europe also includes a military component. But it remains for the moment very measured, taking the form of reconnaissance maneuvers: France sent Rafale and Mirage 2000 planes over the Black Sea, as well as the frigate Auvergne. Ukrainian President Zelensky even said he was prevented by Germany from obtaining defensive weapons.
This pressure tactic is far from being favored by Joe Biden, who said on December 8 that sending American soldiers was not “not on the table”. “Ukraine is not a member of NATO and there is no agreement which requires its members to intervene in the event of aggression”, recalls Edouard Simon. The same goes for Europe, which intends to favor negotiation. A military response would also serve Moscow.
“Russia uses the defense argument: it says it is acting in reaction to provocations from NATO, so as to pass Westerners off as the real aggressors and put them in contradiction with the values they claim.”
Christine Dugoin-Clément, researcher at the CapEurope think tankto franceinfo
“The question is, what message should we send to calm the situation while avoiding escalation?“summarizes Edouard Simon. There is no doubt that among European and American diplomats, the question is on everyone’s lips.