After a year of disgrace, “King Bibi” regains his crown. For the fifth time in less than four years, Israelis were called to the polls on Tuesday November 1 to renew the elected members of Parliament. In total, forty lists were vying for the seats in the Knesset, but the choice was in reality reduced to two men: the centrist Yaïr Lapid, outgoing Prime Minister and founder of the Yesh Atid party, and the nationalist Benyamin Netanyahu, former head of government, at the head of a “right-wing bloc”.
After two days of counting, the coalition led by Benyamin Netanyahu emerged as the big winner of the election, with 64 seats out of the 120 in the Israeli Parliament. He thus obtained the majority and signed his great return to power. Yaïr Lapid, whose party won 51 seats, congratulated his main rival and wished a “orderly transition”. But how to explain this return to favor despite the indictment for corruption of the former Israeli Prime Minister?
Back in 2021. Benyamin Netanyahu sees power slipping away from him after fifteen years at the head of the government, including twelve consecutive (from 2009 to 2021), which earned him the record for longevity as Prime Minister. Accused of fraud and corruption, the leader of the Likud, ranked on the right, is the subject of legal proceedings. His trial, opened in May 2020, is still running. At the time, these accusations did not pass with the Israelis. Demonstrations for the departure of “Bibi” multiply for almost a year.
In the legislative elections of March 2021, the fall in popularity is reflected in the polls: the Likud loses seats in the Knesset. Benyamin Netanyahu, weakened by his legal setbacks, did not get enough deputies to form a coalition. Opposite, a small majority (just 61 seats) sees the light of day and puts an end to the reign of Benyamin Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett, one of his former proteges, then Yaïr Lapid, founder of the centrist movement Yesh Atid, find themselves at the head of a very heterogeneous coalition (right, left, center and an Arab party).
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Marked by differences, the alliance lost a deputy less than a year after its formation, then another in June, causing the government to lose its majority. “Ideologically, it was too disparate, the parties did not have the same values. Not sharing a similar vision of the country was very problematic to maintain a long-term coalition”analyzes Elizabeth Sheppard, director of the international relations and political program at the University of Tours.
Back to square one. In the absence of a majority, new legislative elections are called for November 1, 2022. Benyamin Netanyahu is back in the race and he is determined to win. “He never lets himself down. He wants it. He is 73 years old, 10,000 others would have abandoned him in his place. He is someone who is ready to do anything to keep power”, describes Denis Charbit, professor of political science at the Open University of Israel. The right-wing nationalist is known for his ability to negotiate with parties to form a government coalition, even if it means not sharing their ideology, as long as they bring him to power. A character that makes him a politician as much loved as hated.
“There is a relentlessness in him which compels either admiration or repulsion.”
Denis Charbit, professor of political scienceat franceinfo
In addition to his temperament as a fighter and leader, which seduces part of the electorate, the unstable political climate for several years has largely played in his favour. After the fifth election in less than four years, “we feel a certain fed up of the population in the face of these very regular elections”, points out Elizabeth Sheppard. In theory, deputies are elected by proportional representation every four years. But in recent years, no coalition had managed to obtain the lasting majority necessary to govern. “Bibi’s” past as head of government suggests he is the man who can avoid a sixth call to the polls. “Netanyahu is perceived as a statesman who represents a certain stability through his experience. He was able to highlight his good management of the health crisis, for example”explains the researcher.
This experience can also be seen in his ability to lead an electoral campaign. It was in the United States, where he spent a large part of his childhood, that he learned everything, according to Freddy Eytan, director of the Jerusalem State and Public Affairs Center : “His prowess in the field is modeled on American methods. It was he who brought the principle of the spectacle state to Israel. [la surexposition médiatique des personnalités politiques]. In that area, he is unbeatable.” Before the elections, Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, crisscrossed the country aboard a “Bibibus”, an armored vehicle with bulletproof glass, to promote his fight for internal security.
Proof of his popularity in the Jewish state, the corruption charges against him were secondary for some voters, according to observers. “He is not the first politician accused of corruption or criminal activity, it takes second place for many people”, says Elizabeth Sheppard. Others simply do not believe in it and have ended up adhering to the thesis of “judicial harassment” worn by Benyamin Netanyahu.
“A majority of voters do not consider these allegations strong enough. For them, he is the victim and not the accused.”
Freddy Aytan, director of the Jerusalem State and Public Affairs Centerat franceinfo
Binyamin Netanyahu also owes a lot to the parties in his coalition. If it finishes first, the Likud won only 32 seats in the Knesset, that is to say half of the 64 seats won by its “right bloc”. The Orthodox parties offered him another 18 seats, while the far-right Religious Zionism party won 14, a historically high result, which doubled compared to previous elections. The training also takes third place in the results, behind Yesh Atid (24 elected).
Israel should therefore be governed by a coalition comprising the most right-wing parties in its history. But if Benyamin Netanyahu worked hand in hand with the hard right to regain power, he is now faced with the challenge of smoothing things over. “This coalition is not just right-wing, it is made up of elected officials who make racist and sexist remarks. It can cause problems with Israel’s allies [les Etats-Unis et l’Union européenne]“remember Elizabeth Shepard. Washington has already shared its hope that the next Israeli government will continue to respect minority rights.
Two supporters of Netanyahu in particular embody this racist, homophobic and anti-Arab extreme right: Bezalel Smotrich and the virulent Itamar Ben Gvir, convicted several times for incitement to hatred.
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The first has already declared that he wants the Ministry of Defence, the second that of Public Security. An unlikely outcome, according to Freddy Eytan: “Benyamin Netanyahu must keep the far right at a distance, so there is little chance that he will give the portfolio of Justice or Defense to his representatives.” During a campaign rally, the former Prime Minister had already refused to appear on the stage with Ben Gvir. But he will still have to ensure their support so that his coalition does not explode in mid-flight.
“These parties have no alternative. They find themselves with the Likud in a situation of interdependence.”
Denis Charbit, professor of political scienceat franceinfo
And now ? Over the next few days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, whose office is symbolic, will have to officially mandate Binyamin Netanyahu to form a government within 42 days. The former head of government will have to prove himself: the Israelis are waiting for him at the turn on the cost of living and purchasing power. According to Freddy Eytan, “this is his last chance to prove that he is the providential man”.