Nearly a year ago, Lebanese Hezbollah opened a front with Israel to support Hamas in its fight against the Jewish state. In recent days, Israel has launched a lightning response against the Shiite group. Spectacular attacks with booby-trapped telecommunications devices were followed by the assassinations of senior commanders, then a vast air campaign to destroy its military capabilities.
Where is Hezbollah? Decoding the situation with Hilal Khashan, professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and author of the book Hizbullah: A Mission to Nowhere, and Karim El Mufti, professor at Sciences Po Paris and Saint-Joseph University in Beirut.
What is Hezbollah?
Hezbollah was formed between 1982 and 1985 following Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon — with the aim of driving out the occupier. The Shiite group is armed and financed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
At the end of the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah was the only militia that was allowed to keep its weapons, Karim El Mufti recalls. “The argument that is part of the Lebanese doctrine until today is that Hezbollah is not only a militia, but a resistance group.”
In May 2000, the Israeli army withdrew from South Lebanon. [Ce faisant]Israel indirectly strengthens Hezbollah, which claims victory by saying that without resistance and without a militarization of the independence struggle, Israel would never have left,” the professor mentions.
Following the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005, Hezbollah became a dominant force in Lebanese politics. At the same time, “after 2006, the group evolved from a militia into a super army, becoming one of the best-equipped armed groups in the world, which would resist the 33-day Israeli offensive in the summer of 2006.”
What are the links between Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas?
They are both Islamist groups, but Hezbollah is Shiite and funded by Iran, while Hamas is Sunni and funded by Qatar. Hezbollah and Hamas are incompatible ideologically and religiously, but are united by a tactical alliance against Israel, explains Hilal Khashan.
“Between 2011 and 2016, relations between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand and Hamas on the other were very difficult because they supported opposing sides in the civil war in Syria.”
But Iran later created the strategy of “unity of fronts.” “If a front like Hamas starts fighting Israel, the other fronts – the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shiite militias in Iraq – must rush to support it,” the expert explains. Which explains why Hezbollah has been launching rockets, missiles and drones on northern Israel for a year in solidarity with Hamas.
In recent years, Hezbollah has helped train Hamas militants, adds Professor El Mufti. “There has been a ‘Hezbolization’ of Hamas [à la suite de laquelle] Hamas will take over the Hezbollah model, its modus operandi, its way of attacking, its way of operating, its way of communicating. So Hezbollah is a little behind [les attentats] of October 7, not in the decision, not in the planning, but in the modeling.”
Is Iran Really Controlling Hezbollah?
The two experts disagree on the issue. For Hilal Khashan, the group receives and implements orders from Tehran. “In short, Hezbollah is not interested in the well-being of Lebanon. It wants to serve Iran and maintain its domination over Lebanese politics,” he says.
He adds that “Hezbollah does not understand – or perhaps it is beginning to understand – that it is not indispensable to Iran.” According to the expert, Iran will not go to the defense of Hezbollah, which is severely mistreated by Israel, since the country has no intention of launching a war against the Jewish state or against the West.
Karim El Mufti sees Hezbollah rather as an “extremely autonomous and independent group that decides for itself.” He adds, however, that Hezbollah can play the role of Iran’s armed wing. “If Iran asks it to do that, it will do it, yes, but it is not controlled [par lui]”It’s an act of coordination, like when the United States asks Germany to do something,” he illustrates.
Has Hezbollah been severely weakened by Israeli bombing?
“I think Israel has set Hezbollah back 20 years in terms of military capabilities,” says Hilal Khashan.
Before the Israeli response, Hezbollah boasted that it could launch 2,000 to 3,000 rockets a day at Israel if the country attacked it, the political scientist recalls. In the last two days, the Shiite group has launched a few hundred rockets at its enemy, “which speaks volumes” about the success of the Israeli campaign, he adds.
On Monday alone, the Israeli military reported hitting 1,600 Hezbollah targets, destroying cruise missiles, rockets and attack drones. “Israel has hit Hezbollah hard and its losses are staggering,” Professor Khashan continued. “Whether Hezbollah really expected war or not, it is clear that the group was not prepared to face the massive bombardment by the Israeli military.”
In his eyes, there is no doubt that Israel will achieve its goal of driving Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and pushing it deeper into the country.
What is Hezbollah’s place in Lebanese political life?
As mentioned above, Hezbollah has become a dominant player in Lebanese political life since 2006. “The Lebanese government and the army, at best they support Hezbollah, and at worst they are neutral,” summarizes Karim El Mufti.
He clarifies that this support is clear. “There has always been a majority in parliament that votes confidence in the government, which gives a mandate to Hezbollah to protect Lebanon and especially liberate the south. [des territoires sont encore contestés entre Israël et le Liban] ” he reports.
Hilal Khashan adds that Hezbollah can count on the support of a majority of the country’s Shiites, representing about 35% of Lebanon’s Muslims who form about 60% of the population. This support is not, however, an endorsement of their ideology. “Some support Hezbollah to preserve the interests and achievements of the Shiite community,” he says.
The possibility of a Hezbollah defeat at the hands of Israel could, however, shake things up. “I assume that Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanese politics will deteriorate after this confrontation ends,” says Professor Khashan. A prediction seconded by Karim El Mufti. “There will be a very strong political blowback against Hezbollah,” he says.