The year 2023 is ending on a cliffhanger for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, whose love rating is at its lowest since 2015. If the pandemic is behind us, it is clear that the economy is driving up prices soaring while dragging the government down. A stabilization, or even a reversal of trends, could give liberals a breath of fresh air. They will also have to juggle a commission of inquiry into interference, negotiate a drug insurance plan and manage a housing crisis linked to a very ambitious immigration policy.
Poilievre, not just a flash in the pan
In many ways, 2023 was the year of Pierre Poilievre. The Conservative leader took advantage of the summer to rebuild his image by taking off his glasses and rolling up his sleeves, both literally and figuratively. “He’s the only one who took his barbecue tour seriously. He didn’t take a vacation and he worked hard,” says political scientist Geneviève Tellier of the University of Ottawa. “Will the others start working hard?” They should think about it, because for the first time since the arrival of Justin Trudeau in 2015, the Conservatives hold a lead that is as considerable as it is lasting. The question for 2024 is whether they will be able to maintain support which, in all likelihood, could give them the keys to a majority mandate.
Inflation…pays
Pierre Poilievre’s fifteen to twenty point lead in the polls cannot be explained only by his makeover: inflation, the cost of living, interest rates are central phenomena in Canadians’ disenchantment with Justin Trudeau. A reversal or slowdown in these trends, far from improbable, could offer little hope of recovery. “It could help the government if inflation started to be brought under control and we were no longer forced to increase the interest rate. But if things go less well and it continues as at the moment, that favors Poilievre,” assures M.me Tellier.
Drug insurance, a key player
When it comes to speculation about the next election, the issue on everyone’s lips is universal pharmacare. This expensive program, which Jagmeet Singh is passionate about, is an integral part of the agreement between New Democrats and Liberals. Although behind-the-scenes negotiations continue, Ottawa’s budgetary room for maneuver is melting like snow in the sun. Will the NDP hold its ground or bring down the government before 2025? “I have the impression that a lot of decisions will be made based on the polls,” says the political scientist.
Hogue Commission on Foreign Interference
The year 2024 will start with a bang with a commission of inquiry of capital importance: the Hogue commission, named after Judge Marie-Josée Hogue, which will look into foreign interference in Canada, a file which had monopolized the scene federal government in the spring. “We don’t know Judge Hogue. We don’t really know where she stands, what she wants to do,” says Geneviève Tellier. After recently denying the Conservatives the chance to ask questions to witnesses, “are we going to blame the government [pour l’ingérence] and return to last year’s psychodrama?” The commission’s final report must be published before December 31, 2024.
Immigration: a (too?) ambitious objective
A “hot potato” that few dare touch, it is a safe bet that immigration will nevertheless be at the center of attention, underlines the political scientist. The new Minister of Immigration, Marc Miller, announced the maintenance of the targets of 500,000 new permanent residents per year from 2025. “He is still ambitious, and many people tell him that he is perhaps a little too ambitious,” says Mme Tellier. With significant “budgetary pressure”, the housing crisis and Quebec demanding hundreds of millions, could the minister change his mind? “Him [Miller] He does not want. But maybe at some point, given the evidence and the number of people who say it doesn’t work, maybe he’ll lower them.”