The future face of the Palais-Bourbon is already beginning to take shape. At the end of the second round of the legislative elections, which will take place on Sunday June 19, the presidential majority could obtain between 255 and 295 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, sAccording to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and parliamentary channels. This is much less than the 346 deputies who make up the current majority and possibly below the absolute majority threshold, set at 289 seats..
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According to them latest projections in seats made possible thanks to the results of the first round, Sunday June 12, the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) can prevent Emmanuel Macron from having an absolute majority. The union of four left-wing parties (La France insoumise, the Socialist Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts and the Communist Party), which won 25.6% of the vote (25.2% for the presidential majority), would have for the next five years a quota comprised between 150 and 190 deputies.
The Republicans would send between 50 and 80 elected in the Hemicycle. Finally, one month after the accession of Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, the National Rally should this time succeed in creating a group in the Assembly (15 deputies minimum). Indeed, the far-right party could obtain between 20 and 45 seats, compared to eight at the start of the previous legislature.
The projections in seats are however to be taken with caution because rebounds can occur during the between-two-turns. “In most constituencies, there will be duels between the presidential majority and the Nupes, explained on June 8 to franceinfo Mathieu Gallard, director of studies at the Ipsos institute. On will also find second rounds which will include the National Rally, the Republicans, and even other forces. It is necessary to take into account the vote transfers of the voters of the eliminated candidates, in multiple configurations, throughout the territory. The process is quite complex. When we make projections in seats, we give ranges, which are often quite wide.