The concept of collective immunity against COVID-19 is a decoy, inaccessible in the short term, says a public health expert from the United Kingdom. A country where the idea of ”living with the virus”, advocated by the Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is now coming up against dizzying rates of infection and reinfection caused by the BA.2 variant.
“We have to admit that we have now entered the era of reinfection,” says the To have to Professor Devi Sridhar, Director of the Chair in Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, UK.
“What we see now with this subvariant is that even the very high levels of antibodies against the COVID-19 virus in the population (99%), conferred by the vaccine or an infection, n do not prevent reinfections. The circulation of the virus remains high, and far too many people continue to die from it,” she laments.
In an op-ed published this week in The Guardianthe researcher has thrown a stone into the pond by affirming that “the achievement of collective immunity” which would ensure that society can turn the page, promoted from the first days of the pandemic and more recently by the Johnson government , no longer held up.
“If that were the case, we would have already reached it! she argues. In particular in the United Kingdom, where more than 68% of the population received a first booster dose (60% in Quebec) and 86% are adequately vaccinated with two doses (83% in Quebec).
However, the arrival of the BA.2 variant came to undermine this concept of an immunity which would end up making the pandemic a thing of the past, advances Mme Sridhar. “The government has eliminated mask-wearing, paid sick leave and access to free testing. We now have coronavirus.data.gov.uk/”target=”_blank”>more than 200,000 official cases per week and hundreds of deaths per day, ”adds the professor, who has just published preventablea book that describes the influence of politics on the course of epidemics.
According to her, the era of reinfections, due to the very high contagiousness of BA.2 and its ability to infect and reinfect the non-vaccinated and a significant proportion of vaccinated people, must force a revision of strategies.
“Otherwise, ‘living with the virus’, as we are doing now, will mean that masses of people are endlessly sick, in isolation and unable to work. This will have a major, even disruptive, effect on our economy. »
After Omicron’s arrival, the reinfection rate fell from 1.6% to around 4%, the UK Public Health Agency (UKHSA) said in January. The emergence of the BA.2 variant boosted this figure to 11% in early April. And this, even if only reinfections occurring more than 90 days after an infection are counted. “Vaccines have reduced mortality and pressure on the health network. But now we face the problem of keeping a host of other essential services operational,” she says.
In recent days, the absenteeism rate due to COVID-19 in the UK has caused chaos in several sectors of the economy. “We are in a mess. With spring, it was hoped that warmer weather would bring cases down. However, we are on a plateau. We hold our breath; we obviously haven’t found the recipe for living with this virus yet. Besides, no one in the world has found it, ”says the public health expert. In early April, the UK even recorded a daily average of 600 deaths, which exceeds the peak of 387 deaths reached during the peak in January.
Despite everything, Devi Sridhar considers it impossible to reinstate strict measures, in particular the restriction of certain movements or certain social activities. “People need to continue their social activities, go to pubs, go to weddings. Humans are social beings. We cannot change that. »
A struggle to continue
This is why the professor urges her government – and others – to reinstate the essential tools to “juggle” with the current variant. In particular, the return to wearing a mask, free access at all times to effective tests (some studies estimate the ability of rapid tests to detect Omicron at only 37%) and easy access to antiviral treatments (including Paxlovid).
“Until there is a universal vaccine, or one that confers longer immunity, we will experience repeated spikes,” she says. The duration of immunity induced by current vaccines is estimated at around five or six months (and slightly less for booster doses), and that of immunity resulting from infection at around three months.
“Many governments no longer want to intervene because the virus is less deadly. But we must continue to limit infections, in particular because of the alarming rates of people who develop long-term COVID. More than 1.5 million Britons suffer from it, according to the UKHSA. And more and more studies report cardiac, pulmonary and neurological sequelae, adds Devi Sridhar, as well as a 40% increased risk of developing diabetes.
We must accelerate the granting of a third dose to all, says Professor Sridhar. With the BA.2 subvariant, the immunity provided by two doses is in steep decline, and time may show that a fourth dose will be required, and not just for those considered ‘vulnerable’.
“The past two years have demonstrated that states are still behind the virus. Studies end up establishing the benefit of a booster. In the United States, it is offered to people over 50. We chose to act preventively. I believe that what follows will prove them right. »