Climate change and El Niño could deprive Quebecers of enjoying a white Christmas, according to experts from Environment Canada, who predict a winter that is significantly milder than the historical average.
After an autumn marked by long periods of heat, the month of November saw a return to normal, a prelude to a winter with higher mercury than usual.
“Warmer-than-expected conditions mean more precipitation will fall as rain, and less as snow, and snow on the ground will tend to melt more quickly,” explained Gerald Cheng of Environment Canada.
A sign of the concrete impact of warming, last winter, the city of Ottawa decided not to open the Rideau Canal skating rink, one of the only winter attractions in the federal capital, for the first time in fifty years.
If the ministry agency’s forecasts come true, it is possible that skating enthusiasts in Quebec cities will end up experiencing the same fate. However, it must be said that last winter was particularly warm.
“Although winter is expected to be warmer than usual, the risk of significant weather events [d’intempéries majeures] is always present, so we must prepare for it,” warned Mr. Cheng.
Two warming factors
The milder weather is mainly explained by two factors: global warming caused by human activity – the usual suspect – but also El Niño, a phenomenon of warming of Pacific waters which returns periodically and whose impact can be measured on the entire North American continent.
“In recent decades, Canada has warmed significantly during winter, particularly in the north of the country, and most of this warming has been caused by human-caused climate change,” Mr. Cheng.
Although Quebec is experiencing increasingly mild winters, it is especially in the west and north of Canada that the warming is felt the most.
Environment Canada’s analysis differs slightly from that of Météo Média, which forecasts January and February to be around normal.