All things considered, it couldn’t have come at a better time. At the end of the month, it is in an oil country, the United Arab Emirates, that the great annual mass will be held where the planet will discuss its current level of fever (a record) and future (a disaster).
The host, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, is also both Minister of Sustainable Development and CEO of the 12e largest oil company in the world. Under his leadership, the assembly will be able to engage in two incompatible accounts. On the one hand, as usual, it will list the commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and will measure the extent of the progress to be made in order not to cause the planet to cross, within seven small years until 2030, the tipping point of 1.5 degrees too much. On the other hand, perhaps behind the scenes, it will list the current increases in fossil fuel production.
The Sultan will be able to explain how his company, ADNOC, intends to invest 150 billion US dollars to increase by 25% the number of barrels per day extracted from the bowels of the Earth by 2030. He has just announced new gas projects in Wed. But be careful: they will be “carbon neutral”. According to the principle that a whiskey factory is “alcohol-free” as long as employees do not drink during work, the oil companies now affirm without laughing that the increase in the thing that is burning the planet is done with the utmost respect. of the environment.
Is it their fault that people are burning their production to generate as much GHG emissions as Japan and Germany combined produce in a year, just with the single increase anticipated by ADNOC? Consumers are at fault. Not the producers. Mind you, this is just as true for the cocaine cartels.
The Sultan will be in good company. The representative of the United States will be able to confirm that his country, now the largest oil producer, will expand its production in a corner of Alaska that has so far been spared to extract 600 million barrels. Brazil will be able to boast of increasing its oil production by 63% and doubling its gas extraction within ten years. India will amaze by announcing that it will double its coal production – with an even heavier environmental footprint – by 2030. The British representative will be able to recall having postponed the achievement of its GHG reduction targets and granted hundreds new drilling permits in the North Sea. Even green Norway, a major oil producer, will be able to reiterate that it will never reduce the flow of its wells, any reduction having to come, said its prime minister, only “from demand”.
Our own representative, Steven Guilbeault (who some gossips claim was an environmentalist) will be able to show for the dominion an increase in oil production of 25% within 12 years. However, he cannot boast of having approved the Bay du Nord project, 70 million barrels per day, also “carbon neutral”. Its promoters received the green light from the minister, but suspended work, awaiting more favorable market conditions. Guilbeault will, however, be able to boast of his government’s decline in the carbon tax on fuel oil and demonstrate, supported by the Environment Commissioner’s report, that despite all its pretenses, it has no chance of achieving its carbon targets. GHG reduction.
COP28 will therefore be the global festival for increasing fossil production. A guarantee of success. Yes, because the sultan reports having consulted widely to find out the reasons for the failures of previous COPs. He found: they were targeting fossil energy producers. “Why are we fighting against industries? he kindly asked the New York Times. The fight against emissions should focus on reducing emissions in all areas, whether it’s oil and gas or other industries, it doesn’t matter which ones. ” That’s true. The fossil fuel industry is no more or less responsible for global warming than flower production or lingerie factories. We must put an end to this unequal treatment.
And then, he explains, technology will find ways to reduce GHGs in time. Take the electric vehicle (EV) craze. Well, it’s true, Volkswagen has just canceled its two billion EV factory project in Germany. Ford postponed an announced investment of 12 billion. GM has abandoned its goal of producing 400,000 EVs by mid-2024. Tesla has reduced the price of its base model. Their problem? Sales, up sharply since 2021, could decline this year (this is under debate). One of the hypotheses, according to Forbes : enthusiastic, eco-friendly buyers, having already purchased their plug-in car, this pool is dried up and normal buyers remain skeptical.
In short, on the one hand we are increasing the production of the stuff that threatens our grandchildren with having to go outside in diving suits and, on the other hand, the technology is not advancing fast enough or is not popular enough. Verdict? This one, from a recent report in which the UN participates: “To be compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, the supply and demand of coal, oil and gas on a global scale are expected to decline rapidly and significantly between now and 2050. However, the estimated increases based on government plans and forecasts would lead to coal, oil and gas production levels exceeding 460%, 29% respectively. and 80% the median trajectories compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C. » In other words, instead of piling up, it’s piling up.
This is perhaps the price to pay for entrusting the management of environmental meetings to oil companies. You will tell me, Iran currently occupies the presidency of the social forum of the Human Rights Council.
It’s going to be fine.
Jean-François Lisée led the PQ from 2016 to 2018. He has just published Through the mouth of my pencils published by Somme Tout / Le Devoir. [email protected].