A bad week for Donald Trump. And a good one for Joe Biden and the Ukrainian leaders.
American aid voted for Ukraine, after months of blockage. Start of a historic criminal trial against a former president who dreams of becoming one again.
Deprived of aid for half a year, kyiv’s troops are in difficulty in the face of Russia’s massive offensive against civilian targets (residential buildings, energy infrastructure) and military targets (the Donbass, where the Russian army is slowly advancing. at the price of the sacrifice, decided by Vladimir Putin, of thousands of his own soldiers).
Today defeated in a vote in Congress on aid to kyiv, facing the courts of his country, is Donald Trump losing his grip?
In New York, the former president is forced to appear before a jury for the alleged crime of concealment and embezzlement in a sordid affair that mixes sex and election spending, in a media context that he does not control and which disconcerts him.
And then there is this decision, on Saturday in the House of Representatives, to vote on a huge aid package for Ukraine. A decision which was undoubtedly inevitable in the long term, but which comes – as usual in this war – very late, perhaps too late from the Ukrainian point of view.
Let’s be clear: the majority in favor of such a measure — in American public opinion as well as on the floor of Congress — has never been in doubt. But the anti-democratic dilatory maneuvers of the Republican hard wing in the lower house, inspired by Donald Trump who pulls (or hoped to pull) the strings, succeeded in delaying by almost six months the holding of this vote that she knew loser… if we ever let it play out.
The vote took place. Defying his hard wing, and fueling an internal revolt which could soon cause him to lose his post, the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, a religious ultraconservative with good looks like Mike Pence, overrode and authorized a decision on aid to Ukraine (separating it from aid to Taiwan and aid to Israel, which were also adopted).
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Astonishing is the margin by which this “yes” to Ukraine passed: 311 for, 112 against. In favor of aid: all Democrats, plus 101 Republicans out of 213… which is a lot.
Informal scores from the beginning of the year suggested that there were only a few dozen Republicans left – silent and intimidated – ready to support Ukraine… the majority of representatives of this party, rallied to the MAGA movement, lining up behind the injunctions of a Trump with pro-Russian inclinations.
That said, the 112 “no” votes to Ukraine, or a majority of the Republican delegation, make it clear that there is now a real pro-Russian lobby at the heart of American institutions. The formidable ideologue Steve Bannon has had babies.
As for the support of the American population for the Ukrainian resistance, the latest Gallup, dated April 12, shows that it is increasing, after having declined at the end of 2023. Today, 36% of Americans say that the United States “are not doing enough” for Ukraine and 26% “just enough” (total 62%)… compared to 36% who say we are doing “too much”.
There is no doubt that the Senate will in turn approve the funds. Joe Biden celebrated this vote as “a clear result”, seeing it, he believes, as “a message about the power of American leadership on the world stage” in response to “the call of history”.
The vote constitutes a major setback for Donald Trump – even if, at the end of the race, he had softened his recriminations, seeing the inevitable vote looming.
Since the time when a certain Volodymyr Zelensky, newly elected president in kyiv, refused in the summer of 2019 to play his game by launching arbitrary investigations into Joe Biden and his son Hunter, Trump has criticized Ukraine, while regularly demonstrating his sympathy for the Russian leader.
Trump often says he would resolve the war “in 24 hours.” How ? By letting Russia keep the lands already taken from Ukraine, and twisting Zelensky’s arm into saying “yes”. An ignominy, consisting of telling those attacked: “You surrender, and the problem will be resolved. » But also, and above all, a pure Trumpian phantasmagoria.
To justify himself against his radicals, Mike Johnson declared: “I really believe the information and the briefings we received” [sur la situation difficile des troupes ukrainiennes]. A heresy these days within the Republican Party, when we know of Trump’s undermining work against American intelligence, described as a “deep state” doomed to its downfall.
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What effects on the war and the American campaign?
These six months of diversion in Washington, Putin took advantage of them to drive a wedge against the Ukrainian defenses, in acute shortage of ammunition and personnel, and with morale damaged by a feeling of abandonment. With a bitter Zelensky who repeated in recent days: “Give yourself better anti-aircraft defense; they are destroying our infrastructure. Give us artillery shells, and we will push them back into Donbass. »
It remains to be seen whether these new massive deliveries can help kyiv reverse the trend.
As for the polls – which are worth what they are worth, so far from an election – they show Trump in slight decline against Biden, with two candidates still neck and neck.
But these two simultaneous events perhaps show that something has broken in the “Trumpian magic”.
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