Has the number of irregular entries into Europe jumped “300%”, as Jordan Bardella puts it?

Immigration to Europe’s borders is on the rise according to Jordan Bardella, President of the National Rally: “You have seen the latest figures from Frontex, the European border guard agency, which show that compared to 2022 there is a 300% increase in illegal immigration to Europe”he said on France Inter.

A very localized increase

What Jordan Bardella says is wrong: there is not a 300% increase in irregular entries into Europe. In reality, it is even significantly less. SAccording to Frontex data, irregular entries into Europe increased by 30%, in the first four months of 2023 compared to the first four months of 2022. This represents just over 80,000 attempts to cross a European border.

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The figure of 300% quoted by the president of the National Rally figure does exist, but it concerns only one gateway to the European Union: cit from the central Mediterranean, that is to say the south of Italy, in particular the island of Lampedusa, near Sicily, where makeshift ships land. SOn this route, according to Frontex data, just over 42,000 irregular entries were recorded between January and April, compared to just over 10,000 at the same time last year. This is indeed a record for this axis, which has been widely used for years by migrants, but it is not the only crossing point in Europe!

The other roads are all down

For other crossing points in Europe, on the other hand, it is down everywhere! Whether in the Balkans (which was the route most used last year by migrants), but also between Turkey and Greece or around Gibraltar in southern Spain, tn these axes have seen less people pass at the beginning of the year than last year at the same time with sometimes significant drops of around 30 to 50% depending on the location.

According to Frontex, if it is falling in the Balkans, it is in particular because there have been fewer Syrian and Afghan migrants and Hungary has tightened its border controls. And if it increases sharply in the Mediterranean, it is because the groups of smugglers in Libya and Tunisia are better organized, they also take advantage of the political instability in these two countries, according to Frontex.

ATAnother reason: the smugglers make makeshift boats more quickly, small boats assembled in just a few hours on a beach before setting sail. VSAs a result, the price of crossings has fallen and the number of candidates for departure has increased.