This is THE subject discussed behind the scenes yesterday during the meeting of NATO Defense Ministers in Brussels. Our allies wonder: by his declarations, Emmanuel Macron would have weakened our common defense strategy? Question relayed by a British journalist during the press conference of the Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg: “LDidn’t France undermine Western deterrence by unilaterally eliminating a nuclear response to Russia?
At the Elysée, we evade the problem. The answer lies in two points: deterrence is above all a subject of national sovereignty and the president is the only one who can define French doctrine.
There is no precise definition of French nuclear doctrine, that is the whole point. A former Minister of Defense recalls the concept: “strategic ambiguity”. To put it plainly, our nuclear weapons could be used in case the “vital interests” of our country would be affected.
“Vital interests”, a deliberately vague formula, hammered out nine times by Emmanuel Macron during a speech on nuclear deterrence in 2020 at the École de guerre. “The vagueness is wanted. As long as we don’t define our vital interests, we have the advantage”, decrypts a member of the staff. The problem is that since Wednesday, our enemies know what is not our vital interest. Ukraine is not, if we follow the declarations of the Head of State.
“Basically, the president is right, no one imagines that we will wipe Moscow off the map. But he said too much.”
A former army chiefat franceinfo
It is therefore a strategic mistake on the part of Emmanuel Macron, the consequences of which we cannot yet measure. First for the military balance of the region: can Putin exploit this flaw? Then for the credibility of Emmanuel Macron as head of the armies. “He is the very example of a political leader who does not weigh his words”annoyed a senior officer.
This concern should probably not be spread out in the open. “A public debate would show our fragility”, insists an opposition deputy, member of the Defense Committee, yet very upset. No public controversy therefore, but concerns and perhaps a strategic breach opened by Emmanuel Macron.