After a start on the hats of wheels, widely celebrated, at the end of April, on the occasion of his “hundred days”, the first anniversary of the election of Joe Biden to the White House is on the contrary the occasion of a first-class burial.
If the first balance sheet erred by excess of optimism, the second is perhaps premature when, on the left as on the right, it is decreed that there is not much to hope for from this presidency, and that the return of the Trumpism in power is only a matter of time.
However, the clouds are numerous, the blockages inherent in the American political system still present, and the civil war, already latent, remains a possibility and a threat in this fragmented country (cut in two… but not only).
As for the loss of influence of the United States internationally, it is all the more blamed because Biden himself and his relatives (Vice President, Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State, Antony Blinken) maneuvered badly in several crises: a botched exit from Afghanistan (even if it was planned, inevitable and basically supported by American opinion); cavalier treatment of the allies (with France in the submarine affair); cruel mess at the Mexican border …
Moreover, Washington’s international “doctrine” continues, under Joe Biden, to operate on flawed and outdated premises in 2021.
Premises to which we cling, in an attitude of nostalgia for power and denial: the famous “leadership” affirmed but which no longer works (the empty slogan “America is back”), the false assertion according to which The Trump episode was only a parenthesis and a fleeting aberration (whereas in foreign policy there are elements of continuity from Trump to Biden).
Let us add that Biden himself, in a declaration made on the eve of his departure for Europe (G20 and COP26), himself explicitly made the return of US prestige dependent on proof of “functioning”. of American democracy. “The rest of the world is wondering if we can function,” he warned.
However, there as elsewhere, there is a margin between the wishes of the president and the reality on the ground, whereas the American domestic policy remains scrutinized – in the rest of the world – more than any other, with an astonishing degree of detail.
The perception of a blockage in Washington remains strong, the Republican bloc in the Senate and in the House of Representatives being united in its strategy of global refusal and sabotage of the Democratic administration (attitude claimed without ambiguity by the leader of the Republican minority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell).
The room for maneuver of the Biden government is all the more reduced since the Democratic “majority” in the Senate (50 senators against 50, with the casting vote of the vice-president) is not really one – in any case, not on all subjects.
In addition to the internal divide, important, between a centrist majority wing and a wing woke (very present in the House of Representatives, radical on societal issues, but also on public spending), the formation of Joe Biden is handicapped in the Senate, on his right, by the presence of two conservatives elected under the label “Democrat”, by states that sociologically should vote Republican: Joe Manchin (West Virginia) and Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona).
Linked to the lobbies (Manchin and the coal), courted by the party leaders, intoxicated by their power as “pivots” in Congress and making their votes pay dearly, these two are the nightmare of the current government and its progressive program. .
The picture would not be complete without the mention of Donald Trump who, even relatively silent since Twitter censored him ten months ago, nonetheless continues to pull the strings and determine who can and who cannot. not, to be a Republican candidate, in the Senate or in the House, in a very large number of constituencies. The newest governor of the state of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin, was dubbed by the ex-president before campaigning.
The belief that the 2020 election was “stolen” by Democrats and Joe Biden is now part of the Republican catechism. It receives the support of a clear majority of elected officials and voters of this party.
In power in about thirty states (generally the smallest), the regional republican governors and elected officials are changing, step by step, the rules of the electoral game, with the barely disguised objective of making it more difficult exercise of the right to vote by groups identified as Democrats, during the mid-term elections in 2022 and the presidential election in 2024. The redistribution of constituencies in favor of the locally ruling party is brazen and manifest.
Under these conditions, with these sinister omens, and an approval rate increased from 47 to 43% between the 1er September and October 31, what can Joe Biden do?
The continued decline in unemployment, the relative success of the anti-COVID campaign, the shift from stimulus support plans of $ 1.8 trillion (in April) and infrastructure support of $ 1.2 trillion (in recent days… and surprise! – with a few Republican votes in the House); perhaps soon a mixed success of the COP26 with a strong American participation … could all this reverse the trend?
François Brousseau is an international news columnist
at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]