A “surprise” attack, carefully coordinated, and of “unprecedented” scale. Two days after the Hamas strikes and Israel’s response, experts are trying to describe and analyze the repercussions to help us understand what happened.
How are these attacks new?
“It’s the coordination between the different units and the fact that clearly, the Hamas representatives seemed to know where to go and where to return to pick up people,” said Costanza Musu, associate professor at the Graduate School. in public and international affairs from the University of Ottawa.
For Rex Brynen, professor at McGill University and specialist in the Middle East, Hamas deliberately sought to make an impression with its attacks, which “targeted civilians”. “And in making that decision, I think they felt that the more shocking the violence, the more seriously it would be taken,” he said.
What effects on the evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Mr. Brynen, formerly a consultant for the UN and the World Bank, is however mixed on the effects of this “shock operation”. “I think its effect on public opinion in the West and in Israel is such that it has made the chances of reaching a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict even less likely,” he said. “We have not had a peace process with an Israeli government engaged in a permanent occupation of the territories […], [engagé] in what looked like apartheid, but I think it’s going to be even worse now,” he said. He does not see how these Hamas strikes could translate into long-term gains. “Even if it may succeed in strengthening the appeal [du Hamas] among Palestinians who are simply frustrated by generations and generations of occupation, it will only work for a while. »
Costanza Musu of the University of Ottawa believes that these attacks and the response are already having visible repercussions on both sides. “The Israelis no longer feel protected by their government in the face of the bankruptcy of the intelligence services,” she said. In a context where there are demonstrations by the Israeli people against legal reform, this is nothing to help promote support for the government in place. “It’s a coalition government where Benjamin Netanyahu’s party must have the support of the far right, so there will be repercussions internally in Israel, that’s for sure. »
She also notes that times are hard for the Palestinians, who will be tossed between Hamas, which has control over the Gaza Strip, and the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas, which partly administers the West Bank. “Both have very different political visions,” she argued. “It’s going to be very difficult for Mahmoud Abbas [le chef de l’Autorité palestinienne] to position himself, because he has received a lot of criticism saying that he is corrupt and under the control of the West and Israel. »
What are the effects of these attacks on rapprochements between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
These attacks will also have consequences for the historic negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, peace talks currently being discussed under the aegis of US President Joe Biden. “I cannot say if it will completely stop or eliminate this peace process, but it is certain that the Israeli response in the Gaza Strip will be strong,” says M.me Musu. And according to her, it will become difficult for Arab countries to continue to negotiate openly with Israel, to the benefit of Iran which, according to her, is the state that most wants the peace process to abort. Mme Musu also points out that Joe Biden has not publicly called on Israel to avoid an escalation of violence, which it normally does when there is aggression from one side or the other.
What are the main humanitarian implications?
The director of the Montreal Institute of International Studies and professor at UQAM, François Audet, maintains that the humanitarian aid that is sent to the Gaza Strip will be one of the first to feel the effects of the attacks. “Faced with such a grandiose failure, of the Israeli secret services which allowed armament of such magnitude to pass before their eyes, the negotiation for the entry of humanitarian supplies will be carried out in dribs and drabs,” he said. noted.
For him, on a humanitarian level, the case of the Gaza Strip is unique, given the enclave. “The only places where it is possible to pass will be double-closed. Negotiation by local intermediaries is not possible, it will be done mainly with the Israeli military authorities,” he added. “The United Nations must play the role of allowing a certain control of Israel [de surveillance sur ce qui passe, comme les armes] while allowing access to humanitarian convoys. »
Because we cannot starve two million civilians, he said, referring to the Gazans. “It would be one of the greatest war crimes. Israel’s reaction is justified by the massacre, but it must take into account international law. »
What is the political future of Prime Minister Netanyahu?
“It seems to me that his political objective is to be very tough, even brutal, to try to obtain the support of a traumatized and angry Israeli public,” noted Rex Brynen, who no longer sees him in power for very long. a long time. “But I think a very large number of Israelis will blame him for intelligence and policy failures. And I think he will have to be held accountable. This will not necessarily mean that Israeli public opinion will shift to the left, he adds, even that it will empower the right. “I think a lot of the blame will fall on Netanyahu, but it will harden Israeli political attitudes because of the absolutely devastating scenes and images that we have seen. »
Mr. Brynen also notes that everyone tries to use these attacks to serve their own message. “Absolutely everyone has a propensity to interpret what happened,” he says. “It is a normal human tendency to view such events through the prism of our own preferences, prejudices or fears, and I think modern social media only makes things worse. »