According to Nicolas Goldberg, if the European Union interrupts its purchases of Russian gas because of the war in Ukraine, it will not be able to reconstitute sufficient stocks for next winter.
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The obligation announced by Moscow to pay for Russian gas in rubles from Friday April 1 will force the European Union to make drastic choices, according to several specialists interviewed Thursday by franceinfo. Indeed, in the event that the EU stops buying Russian gas, “this can expose us to cuts in winter”, warns Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus consulting. Philippe Chalmin, economist and commodity and energy market specialist, note, however, that “France is less affected” than some of its European neighbors such as Germany and Austria by the risk of shortage “to the extent that our dependence on Russian gas is lower”.
According to the two specialists, the exit period from winter is traditionally a time when gas stocks are relatively low – around 25%. However, the next few months are supposed to be used to raise these stocks to around 90% before next winter. “If we interrupt Russian gas deliveries, it is an objective that is compromised”assures Nicolas Goldberg because “in the short term, we will fill less gas storage”. It would be “painless” over a few weeks but potentially difficult with the onset of winter.
“We’re going to tighten our belts”therefore warns Philippe Calmin, economist and specialist in the commodity and energy markets, who mentions “a real diktat” from Russia. According to him, stopping the purchase of Russian gas will result in “an increase in prices and restrictions on use”. “The French will be called upon to make efforts to heat themselves less and save electricity which is produced from gas” abounds Nicolas Goldberg.
According to Philippe Chalmin, “Vladimir Putin holds us by the side by which we are most sensitive” while at the same time it is less dependent on its petroleum exports than on gas. If he thinks that“we can find other sources of supply” for oil, he considers that the European Union has “a real problem” with regard to gas because of a “level of dependence on Russia which remains globally around 30 to 40%”.