The long-awaited decision finally came down on Friday: the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. wade, the landmark 1973 decision that affirmed the constitutional right to abortion nationwide. In the absence of this judgment, it is up to each State to decide on the legal status of the intervention.
Half of the states in the country should restrict or outright ban the practice, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization that provides statistics on birth control and abortion in the United States and around the world. Of these 26 States, 13 have implemented trigger lawsor “trigger laws”, designed to make the ban on voluntary terminations of pregnancy effective soon or, in some cases, today.
“In some states, it is an immediate application, so as soon as the judgment is announced, the right to abortion no longer exists”, explains Andréanne Bissonnette, researcher in residence at the Observatory on the United States of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair. This is particularly the case in Kentucky, Louisiana and South Dakota, where access to abortion ended abruptly as soon as the judgment was canceled on Friday morning.
For three other states — Idaho, Texas and Tennessee — the trigger law provides for the prohibition of almost all abortions 30 days after the revocation of Roe v. wade.
In the other seven cases, almost all abortions will be illegal once the state attorney general or governor certifies that the US Supreme Court has overturned the judgment. This process can be very quick, “taking just hours or days,” according to the Guttmacher Institute.
As proof: the Attorney General of Missouri already announced on Friday that the state was becoming the “first” to ban voluntary terminations of pregnancy, in the wake of the decision of the highest court. Arkansas and Oklahoma have in turn confirmed that abortion is now illegal in their territory.
However, the portrait remains uncertain for a dozen states, such as Michigan, where a law prior to Roe v. wade that would ban nearly all abortions has been blocked by a state court. In Virginia, abortion will most likely remain accessible, although not expressly protected by state law.
In any case, all the States which have not yet decided on the question will have to end up doing so, assures Ms.me Bissonnette. “Currently, there are several states where the legislature is recessing for the summer. In the fall, in parallel with the mid-term elections, we will therefore see these issues taking shape in more divided states, ”she adds.
Political repercussions
The political impact of the Supreme Court’s decision comes months before the important midterm elections in the United States. A few hours after the decision, the president, Joe Biden, was already calling on Americans to defend the right to abortion during these elections.
“On the side of Democrats and people who are in favor of the right to abortion, we see historically that each time this right is threatened, there is a resurgence of activism and donations to political organizations”, observes the researcher in residence at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
On Friday, many citizens had already gathered outside the White House in Washington to protest against the Supreme Court’s decision. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi slammed a decision by “a radical Supreme Court” that “endangers the health and safety” of women.
The challenge that awaits both sides, according to researcher Bissonnette, is the summer period between the annulment of the judgment and the mid-term elections in November. Among the Democrats, “it will remain to be seen how the mobilization will be maintained”.
On the side of the Republican electorate, it will be necessary to monitor the ” single issues voters “. ” [Ce sont] voters who voted only to cancel Roe v. wade. What will happen now that it is invalidated? asks M.me Bissonnette.
An even more restricted right
For McGill University political science professor Kelly Gordon, the cancellation of Roe v. wade changes both “everything and nothing”. Because if the decision goes back to the legal point of view, access to abortion was already very limited in many states, she recalls.
“For many poor women, women of color or women who live in rural communities, access to abortion was already difficult, even with Roe v. wade in place”, observes Mme Gordon. In 2017, for example, five states had only one clinic offering abortion services.
If many women already had to move from one state to another to have access to voluntary termination of pregnancy, we can certainly expect these movements between borders to increase, she adds.
Some states that plan to protect the right to abortion are already working to allow women from a neighboring state to have access to this intervention, says Andréanne Bissonnette. “Just last week, New York State passed laws that will protect doctors from possible lawsuits if they perform abortions on women who reside in a state where it is illegal. »
As to whether the new judgment revoking Roe v. wade could be invalidated, Professor Kelly Gordon is adamant: ” Roe [v. Wade] is dead. “Even if it is not impossible that a new decision which would restore a constitutional right to abortion see the light of day, this avenue is not conceivable in the short term, according to her.
“There’s a new Supreme Court that’s really conservative, and it’s going to stay that way for a long time. They are young judges, so it’s not a decision that will be defeated, it’s really serious, ”she concludes.