At the start of the year, the absence of elections since 2016 means that the last 10 elected senators have completed their terms. There is therefore no longer any elected representative in Haiti at this time. It is a political vacuum that makes one dizzy.
To say that it is very urgent for a national consensus to emerge within Haitian society is an understatement. Six months ago, I expressed my opinion in this same section on the disappointingly slow pace of negotiations between representatives of civil society and the private sector and the Prime Minister designate, Ariel Henry1. This consensus is still awaited. And what has happened since then?
Prime Minister Designate Henry met with the UN Secretary General to discuss an international intervention force. On the Canadian side, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met at the United Nations in September with our Caribbean partners to sound them out on the situation. Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly met her American counterpart, Antony Blinken, in Montreal in October. The latter formally asked Canada to assume the leadership of this multinational force whose mandate remains to be defined.
Canada will not commit until a formal agreement between the various political actors has been reached. On the other hand, Canada has moved concretely.
He shipped equipment to Haiti to build the capacity of the Haitian National Police (PNH). Thanks to this assistance, the PNH took over the Varreux oil terminal, allowing the population of the capital to regain some normality. A new shipment of material took place recently. Also in October, Canada sanctioned well-known personalities, including former President Michel Martelly and two former prime ministers: a strong gesture that is beginning to produce effects.
It is no coincidence that violent protests and kidnappings have decreased over the past two months. We recently sanctioned other Haitian personalities. Two Canadian delegations have traveled to Port-au-Prince in recent months to help unblock the negotiations. During the “Tres Amigos” (Biden-Trudeau-López Obrador) summit, Haiti was on the agenda for discussion, an important signal of the seriousness of the situation.
Let’s be real though. This is not what will bring stability to Haiti, but these are concrete gestures while waiting to see where the negotiations will end between what remains of the Haitian government and the representatives of civil society.
Where are we now?
A glimmer perhaps on the horizon. On December 31, a High Council of Transition (HCT) was set up involving Prime Minister Henry and certain representatives of civil society. It is certainly a positive first step, but we are far from the consensus that we should expect. The HCT is composed of only three members at its head. It must be broader and consensual. Despite this timid progress, mistrust continues to reign.
Prime Minister Henry is so controversial that he is not trusted. Although he currently has the support of the international community, this support must have limits.
Canada and the United States must demand more openness on its part, particularly towards political parties. The mandate of the HCT is too broad: review the Constitution, reform the Court of Cassation, in addition to setting up a Provisional Electoral Council. It is a gigantic task. As for the timeline, holding elections for the Presidency, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies at the same time in the Haitian context as early as December 2023 is unrealistic. I know something about it, because as Canada’s ambassador, I closely followed two election campaigns.
If the HCT takes shape with broad support from civil society, all stakeholders will need to formally commit to respecting its findings. The international community should support and advise as needed, and nothing more. That the Haitians take their responsibilities. This same international community will then have to make an unequivocal and substantial commitment. Organizing three-tier elections will require tens of millions of dollars and substantial human resources. Expectations are high, but patience and perseverance will be required.
In my opinion, elections will only be possible in 18 to 24 months at the earliest, if the HCT can deliver its mandate by next December. It gives time to bring some security back to Port-au-Prince and the rest of the country.
After 18 months of bickering, it’s time for something constructive to happen. While we argue in the capital, the 10 million Haitians are only asking for a little security, access to health, education and a decent job. Our former Governor General Michaëlle Jean recently expressed her opinion2, saying time is running out and the country needs a united front. On this point, I completely agree with him.