When Steven Guilbeault was appointed Minister of the Environment, I thought of Nicolas Hulot.
This popular French environmentalist had refused three times to be a minister before finally accepting the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron in 2017. Fifteen months later, he resigned. “I don’t want to lie to myself anymore,” he explained, unable to support his own government.
In Montreal, Luc Ferrandez also left the Plante administration after less than two years. He was disappointed with the lack of action on the climate crisis.
Like them, Mr. Guilbeault comes to power with immense expectations. Every compromise on his part will be called a betrayal. And its mission is even more difficult. Because unlike Montreal or France, Canada is an oil state.
Still, Steven Guilbeault has two assets for him.
The first is that he will be well accompanied. His appointment is not the only strong signal. Jonathan Wilkinson’s in Natural Resources is just as important.
PHOTO LARS HAGBERG, AFP
Jonathan Wilkinson was appointed Minister of Natural Resources on Tuesday.
In the past, this department looked like a branch of the oil and gas lobby. That should change with Mr. Wilkinson. He is the former Minister of the Environment, and before entering politics he ran a green technology company.
Under the previous government, MM. Guilbeault and Wilkinson were working behind the scenes to draft the green plan. This duo remains intact, and it is gaining ground by controlling both the Environment and Natural Resources. Never seen. And the New Democratic Party, which holds the balance of power, will push them in the back.
The other asset of Mr. Guilbeault is his pragmatism.
There are two categories of activists. Those who mobilize the population by denouncing the softness of elected officials. And those who influence elected officials behind the scenes and salute their advances, even when they are imperfect. The former director of Équiterre belonged to the “good cops” category.
Before entering politics, he spoke to everyone, including employers, and he had the ear of decision-makers. I remember seeing him have lunch in private with Pierre Arcand, then Minister of the Environment of Quebec, in Cancún in 2010 at COP16. This made him the pet peeve of some activists.
Despite this background, the challenge will be colossal for Mr. Guilbeault.
No one doubts his convictions or his talents as a popularizer. However, it remains to prove its ability to win its battles.
His debut in politics was difficult. At the head of the Ministry of Heritage, he had difficulty selling his reform of the Broadcasting Act.
He knows the environment better, but the policies to be implemented will be very complex.
The Liberals promise to end fossil fuel subsidies, and also to cap and then reduce greenhouse gas emissions from this sector. How? ‘Or’ What ? We don’t know. And even if the minister finds a technical solution, selling it will not be easy.
Alberta and Saskatchewan are at risk of going to court against the federal government.
Mr. Guilbeault must therefore be both diplomat and cunning, educator and charmer. He will have to master the art of politics.
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The mere appointment of Mr. Guilbeault will be seen as an affront in the Prairies. But Justin Trudeau learned a lesson in his first term: some compromises are impossible. By trying to please everyone, we end up disappointing everyone. This is how Canada found itself owner of the expensive Trans Mountain pipeline, while anger remains in Alberta, where the consultative referendum against equalization has been won.
The greatest risk would be to lack ambition.
According to the most recent UN report, global warming will rise to 2.7 ° C if countries meet their current targets. And for now, they are failing. Including Canada.
The consequences will be very concrete. Watch this simulation of the rise in the water level in Old Quebec, about which my colleague Jean-Thomas Léveillé recently spoke.
The Department of the Environment anticipates that Canada is very close to its objective (40% reduction in greenhouse gases below the 2005 level by 2030). Other models are, however, less optimistic. The Trottier Energy Institute estimates that the reduction would be just 16%.
One thing is certain, Canada is not yet making its contribution. From 2005 to 2019, its emissions did not decrease. And since the industrial age, the country is the 10e polluter in importance. And per capita, it is the first.
The Guilbeault-Wilkinson tandem is in the best position to reverse the trend. But to be successful, he will need help at the top of the pyramid. He will have to transform into a trio, gaining strong support from Mr. Trudeau in the battles to come.
The Prime Minister must already be thinking about his legacy. And with hindsight, he will no doubt say to himself one day that what would have been radical would have been to have done too little.