growth in the EU weaker than expected in the first quarter, according to Eurostat

The numbers are worse than expected, but the sky is clearing. Eurostat on Tuesday lowered its estimate of economic growth in the European Union (EU) slightly to 0.2% in the first quarter, compared to the previous quarter. The European Statistical Institute has also confirmed (link in English) the figure of 0.1% for the euro zone.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of the EU had been announced to grow by 0.3%, in a first estimate. But growth, even slightly lower, allowed the EU to avoid a recession during the winter, after a fall in GDP of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the 20 countries sharing the single currency, growth 0.1% over the first three months of the year followed a stagnation during the previous three months.

Rising growth forecasts

All in all, Europe has withstood the energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine better than expected and is seeing its prospects for economic growth improve for this year and next. The European Commission on Monday raised its growth forecast for the euro zone, while warning against the risks of persistent inflation and monetary tightening.

The European executive now expects GDP growth of 1.1% in 2023, 0.2 points more than expected so far. It should reach 1.6% in 2024. Same trend for the whole of the EU, whose growth is now announced at 1% (+0.2 point) in 2023, then 1.7% (+0.1 point ) in 2024.